Policy analysis by Roa Daher, Featured Writer and Nicole Vassilissa Cozza, Visiting Contributor

August 14th, 2021

Last April the US President Joe Biden announced the end of the American Impasse in Afghanistan, after almost twenty years of military operations in the country.

Although the announcement is linked to the Biden administration, it should be pointed out that the current President has done nothing but continue on the line formerly inaugurated by his predecessor.

Biden in fact confirmed, or rather accelerated, the process of military withdrawal started by Donald Trump on the basis of an agreement reached with the Taliban in the framework of the Doha agreements.

In May, in fact, began the orderly withdrawal of troops, scheduled to be fully withdrawn in the first days of September. The date on which the US military commitment will cease has obviously a symbolic value as it will coincide with the 20th anniversary of the September 11 attacks. Back in 2001 it was precisely these 9/11 attacks, in which nearly 3,000 people were killed, that led the US to intervene in Afghanistan.The attacks were attributed to the Islamist militant group al- Qaeda and its leader Osama Bin Laden. At that time Bin Laden was actually in Afghanistan under the protection of the Taliban, the Islamists who had been in power since 1996.

A few days later after the attacks, the then President Bush issued an ultimatum to the Taliban who repulsed it through the mediation of their embassy in Pakistan.  The war began in October 2001 with the invasion of the territories controlled by the Taliban by the Alliance of the North, NATO and the US forces.

After the fall of Kabul the Americans increased their presence on the territory with the mission “Enduring Freedom” to support the new Afghan government.

Currently there are about 3,500 US soldiers in Afghanistan: 2500 assigned to NATO Resolute Support, of which 7000 are also part of the army of 36 States of Coalition that trains and supports the troops of Kabul. In 2014 Nato’s international forces ended their mission, trying to end one of the most expensive and challenging wars of the last centuries. Biden has justified the withdrawal of the troops claiming that the US have already reached their target with the killing of Osama Bin Laden. In fact, it is at least a paradoxical statement considering that since the announcement the Taliban not only have not stopped the attacks but have even increased them. The possibility that the withdrawal of the Coalition will determine the end of hostilities is more than ever an illusion.

In fact, the US’ withdrawal will mean that much of Afghanistan will return under the Taliban’s rule, thus posing a threat to many surrounding countries. For one, Pakistan is expecting an influx of Afghani refugees as the Taliban gains power, which complicates its domestic politics. Much like the situation of Syrian refugees in Europe who are seen as a terrorism threat, there are fears within Pakistan about how Afghani refugees may undermine counterterrorism strategies. There is also an anticipated increase in the number of attacks at the borders between the two countries. While Pakistan may have previously accepted the Taliban, the tide has shifted, and it has become more of a threat recently. The Pakistani military has, for the first time, proposed counterterrorism operations in case of any tensions with the Taliban, which may lead to a wave of anti-Pakistan sentiment in Afghanistan, or perhaps specifically within the Taliban, with potential for further escalation of violence. Depending on the severity of the plan adopted by Pakistan, it could relatively maintain its relationship with Afghanistan, or it could cause the Taliban to ally with anti-Pakistan groups. Pakistan will be seeking a more peaceful approach that would require the Afghani government to make some concessions, however, if unsuccessful, the relationship between the two countries could take a turn for the worst.

On the other hand, if Pakistan and Afghanistan continue to have a peaceful relationship with no escalations, India could be threatened by this alliance. Essentially, India and Pakistan are competing for influence in Afghanistan, and a Pakistani-backed Taliban would be more than enough reason for India to resort to violence and contribute to the instability within Afghanistan. India has also heavily invested in infrastructure in Afghanistan since 2001, and the US’ leaving Afghanistan and the Taliban’s gaining of power both threaten the status of Indian investments.

Thus, the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan will have many far-reaching consequences on the region at large. As the ‘unwinnable’ war of Afghanistan will continue to rage on, what will this mean for future US interventions? Would this mark the end of the United States’ quest to ‘bring democracy’ to countries by installing pro-American governments, or does the end of the Afghanistan era mean the beginning of a new intervention somewhere in the vulnerable Middle East?