Opinion Policy Analysis by Johnny Achkar, Featured Writer

April 24th, 2021

President Joe Biden's announcement at the Munich Security Conference on February 19th 20201 that "America is back," which he reiterated three times in case anybody missed it, was supposed to signal, the United States' intent to focus on diplomacy and international cooperation with its allies. Nonetheless, over the last few days, the simmering crisis in Eastern Ukraine has threatened to spill over, with Russia massing forces near the border and pro-Kremlin media escalating the possibility of invasion, President Biden’s decision to send warships to the Black Sea will only lead to an unwanted level of tension as both Presidents, Zelenskiy and Putin, play with fire.

The annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula by Russia in 2014 sparked the most volatile standoff between Moscow and the West since the Cold War, and the area has been stuck in a stalemate ever since. Since the conflict occurred seven years ago, Ukrainian and Russian-backed separatist forces have respectively also clustered into trenches, in the Donbass Region of Ukraine, that have hardly expanded. Water has been a scarce resource in Crimea for many years. It still exists, along with Moscow's larger task of maintaining a livable standard of living in Crimea via sea supplies and a new bridge it built across the Kerch Strait. In the end, this is not a viable situation for Russia's newest acquisition.

Now, Russia is rubbing salt in the wound by amassing forces near the disputed eastern regions of its neighbor, creating fears that the two sides will be drawn into a military conflict. Moscow accuses Kyiv of planning a renewed offensive in order to break the stalemate and regain areas it had lost to the Russian-backed separatists. Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin's spokesperson, noted the latest rise in conflict on March 23, 2021 and said Russia "sincerely hoped" it would not intensify. In Ukraine, the parliament accepted a resolution announcing an “escalation” along the front lines, effectively recognizing that a July cease-fire had failed. In the latest round of clashes, four Ukrainian soldiers were killed because of a bombing in the eastern regions of Ukraine. The White House has stated that recent escalating Russian aggressions in eastern Ukraine are "increasingly concerning."

Overtly planning for an impending invasion of a nation is certainly the wrong approach for an army accustomed to concealing its movements. Nonetheless, this is the paradox surrounding Russia's noticeable buildup along the Ukrainian border in the west. President Putin can be described as a shrewd operator and a seasoned veteran in politics and foreign affairs. Mr. Putin has recently managed to fend off massive protests that demanded his resignation and the release of opposition figure Alexi Navalny, while also signing a decree that may keep him in the Kremlin until 2036. While Russia's current president spent five years as an agent in East Germany, being nurtured into a top class KGB spy for the former USSR, Ukraine’s current president, Mr. Zelenskiy, is a former comedian. Zelensky has been photographed in the past few days dressed in military gear as he toured the front, greeting soldiers and trying to boost troop morale.

The president has recently taken a stance, which many in Russia perceive to be a of a much tougher position, by shutting down Kremlin-friendly television channels.

Nonetheless, the Ukrainian president’s lack of experience in politics and his inability to resolve problems at home may give Mr. Putin an additional incentive to crank things up a notch. The new flare-up is seen by most as nothing more than saber rattling that will dwindle away like previous episodes in recent years. The main concern is that one side would make a mistake, resulting in the kind of indiscriminate violence that dominated the war in its early stages. In 2008, Russia started a five-day war with Georgia, another former Soviet republic that had shifted its attention to the West.

The United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom have already levied several rounds of sanctions targeting Russian entities, as well as the country’s energy and banking industries. While the Kremlin claims that such policies have no effect, Russia's economy has remained stagnant, and officials have repeatedly attempted to have the sanctions lifted. The only way to end the war in Donbass, according to Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, is for Ukraine to join NATO. The US reaffirmed its commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity on Tuesday, but declined to support Kyiv's demand for a faster path to NATO membership. When asked about Ukraine's new push to join the Western military alliance, White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters, "We've long been discussing that aspiration with Ukraine." She went on to say, "We are good supporters of them." "However, NATO must make the call." Nonetheless, Turkey said on Friday that the US would send two warships to the Black Sea next week, as Russia accused NATO powers without a coastline in the area of growing naval activity. “That's not something new,” said Pentagon representative John Kirby, referring to US military ships in the Black Sea.

When Ukraine's former president, Petro Poroshenko, came to Washington in 2014 to request arms to protect his country, the Obama-Biden administration flatly refused. The administration was concerned that providing lethal assistance would provoke Moscow. Yet, then candidate Joe Biden criticized former President Trump for not giving lethal aid to Ukraine in order to protect itself against Moscow. Such talk is hypocritical, but it also shows Biden’s ‘war hawk’ attitude has not really changed since his days as a senator from the state of Delaware. Looking at Biden's 35-year record on Capitol Hill, it is clear that Iraq is not an outlier, and that he has always associated with more hawkish Democrats and Republicans.

President Bill Clinton was authorized to perform combat air operations and missile strikes against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia by a concurrent resolution passed in 1999, which Biden voted for. In October 2002, then-Senator Joe Biden voted in favor of a resolution authorizing Bush to implement "all applicable" UN Security Council resolutions on Iraq and, if necessary, to use military force against the nation. However, the cherry on top was the Obama-Biden administration’s highly contested decision to intervene in Libya. Since the overthrow of long-serving dictator Col Muammar Gaddafi by NATO-backed forces in October 2011, Libya has been wracked by instability. On a side note, things seem to be calming down a bit now. Yet, Mr. Biden often calls this decision a ‘success: "In this case, America spent a total of $2 billion and didn't lose a single life," Biden informed a Plymouth State University crowd in 2011. Mr. Biden is correct when it comes to American causalities, but what about Libya’s lost generation and the thousands of Libyan lives that were lost?

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is in need of US diplomatic support and no further military hardware being sent to an already tense environment. The warring sides have consistently failed to come to an agreement. Ceremonial cease-fires have not been honored the Minsk Protocol, A cease-fire deal signed by delegates from Belarus, Ukraine, Russia, and other countries in the Donbas region of Ukraine, has horrendously failed to stop the fighting. Two strongmen from Russia and Belarus, along with a comedian from Ukraine failing to come to an agreement, who would have thought! President Biden has vowed to support Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but sending warships to the region sends the wrong signals.

Mr. Biden must hold serious peace talks headed by the United States and truly honor his ‘America is back’ pledge, or else the only thing that is coming back is the sight of body bags belonging to soldiers and civilians being returned to their families.