Opinion analysis by Ricardo Bitar, Featured Writer

March 7th, 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is now well underway. Following months of buildup, and after a dramatic rise in tensions over the last few weeks, Europe is experiencing its first major war after decades of peace. This is not, however, the first crisis between the neighboring countries. A series of aggressions between them in 2014 ultimately led to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the breaking-off of two pro-Russian regions, Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), from Ukraine.

While the world was and still is preoccupied with the political and military repercussions of these events, many people fail to recognize a major crisis that started years ago and is now ready to take a major turn for the worse: Ukraine’s humanitarian crisis.

The direct effects of the fighting, the burden of migrating in order to escape the violence-stricken areas, and the division of the country all lead to an estimated 2.9 million Ukrainians being in need, with children and people with disabilities constituting 13% each of those people.

After the 2014 Russo-Ukrainian War, many people left their homes in Eastern Ukraine to seek refuge in the more peaceful West. In an interview with TPD, Nils Adler, a freelance journalist covering topics of migration and conflict who reported on Ukraine since 2014, elaborated on this topic.

“A lot of people moved temporarily in 2014 and 2015. [..] But then they realized that the trenches kind of became fixed, and that kind of de facto border became fixed. So, it became more of a full-scale, long-term humanitarian issue.” This de facto border is what is now known as the contact line, a 420-km stretch of land that separates the government-controlled areas  from the non-government-controlled areas. It is also what is keeping more than 1.4 million internally displaced people from returning to their homes, and what led to the crisis we are seeing now.

The repercussions of this contact line are wide-reaching and were greatly aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic. While crossing the border between the GCA and NGCA has always been a nerve-wracking issue, it has been quasi-impossible to cross the contact line since March of 2020.

“These huge regions kind of split in half, [disrupting] everything and life for lots of people” said Adler as he was describing the situation. In addition to separating families from each other with virtually no way of reuniting, this border closure separated approximately 3.5 million people from the government, leading to the breakdown of most aspects of their lives, from pensions to healthcare. Nils Adler witnessed some of these effects firsthand, showing the extent of the disruption caused by the separation.

After an uptick in HIV cases in Ukraine, Adler went to report on the issue. “[The government] introduced some successful policies, which had helped reduce the level of HIV in the country. But when the conflicts happened, people weren't able to get their medication and people who were in the East weren't able to continue with their doctors. And so, you saw HIV rates increase again.” Adler explained how this is just a minor example of how people lost access to any form of help or aid from the government.

The demographics of the Donbass region only made the situation worse. After the start of the conflict, most younger people and those without disabilities fled the area, leaving behind the old and the disabled. Most of these people relied on the pensions provided by the government in order to survive. However, since the 2014 war, up to 700,000 pensioners lost access to their pensions. The situation only worsened with COVID-19, leaving an additional 300,000 person without pensions. This is mainly due to the fact that pensions can only be accessed through banks in the government-controlled areas.

“And that created the sense of indifference to the whole crisis because they didn't have enough money. They didn't feel like they were supported by the government and so forth. So, there was there was a quite depressing feel to some of the villages around that because of how the conflict had affected it,” said Adler. People, even on the government side of the contact line, felt isolated because of this crisis. Almost 40% of Donetsk’s and Luhansk’s residents reported feeling experiencing stress, depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder.

However, this number definitely rose since the 2014 war. While the initial violence was definitely the trigger of the crisis, the remnants of these events were still felt to this day. In the Donbass region, 1 in 4 people do not have access to clean water and suffer from water shortages. Moreover, the ceasefire violations since the initial war damaged the infrastructure of the region. Violations in 2017 hindered safe water access to 3.7 million people and cut 3 million people from water supply. Another more direct threat to the people of Donbass is the rampant mine infestation of this area. Raking fifth worldwide for casualties caused by landmines, Ukraine has had 2,000 casualties caused by landmines since 2014. This poses even more threats to the people there, hindering their transportation and threatening their lives. 

All of these issues, as serious as they are, cannot compare to the threat that is posed by the current Russian invasion. Nils Adler described the situation perfectly, stating that “what everyone imagined was the worst-case scenario is happening.” And according to him, there is no escape. “[The] plan was always for people to go west towards Lviv in the event of a large-scale invasion. But I mean, right now we're seeing panic. There are reports of shelling, [even in] Lviv, which is about 70 kilometers from the Polish border. It seems that this conflict is already affecting the whole country.”

And the more progress the Russians make, the more it seems that this conflict will affect the whole European continent. As it stands, “there's going to be a lot of Ukrainian refugees spilling into Slovakia, Poland, or Romania, neighboring countries, basically entering the EU,” said Adler.

As the world witnesses these events unfolding, all eyes should be on the Ukrainian people. These people that suffered since 2014, are now bearing the grave consequences of an unprovoked war. A war that affects not the leaders of these countries, not the people instigating this war, but the poor people. Always the poor people.