Conflict analysis by Reem El Dana, Staff Writer

January 18th, 2021

“(…) We won’t accept spillover. If they attack us, we return fire. And it doesn’t take much time”. Benjamin Netanyahu

 Since the creation of the occupational state of israel, Syria has been part of several fronts that strived to annihilate the usurper and weaken its imperium. Syria was a protagonist of the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, the 1967 Six-Day War in which it lost its Golan Heights, and the 1973 Yom Kippur War. 

What started as a Syrian civil war and what developed into a multifaceted conflict, inevitably spilled over into the neighboring countries and created a security concern that spiraled transregionally.

Assad’s Syria still exists in one of the constellations of Syrian fiefdoms; territories have been divided and conquered by regional and world powers according to disparate strategic interests whose common affairs are bounded by keeping Al-Assad in power. 

Russia is to a certain extent moderating shambolic and war-torn Syria; Moscow provides significant and game-changing support for Al-Assad, Iran, and Hezbollah to stay in power while it concomitantly coordinates with israel on deconfliction.

israel has a narrow maneuvering space to enforce its security interests; its raids are limited to destroying arms shipment to Hezbollah from Iran and or Russia, and it protects the israeli side of the Golan Heights from the budding military front created by its archenemies. israel also fears a prolonged Russian presence in Syria that might greenlight a more hardened Iranian presence and influence, which in turn will significantly impede israel’s movement in Syrian airspace. Over and above, the Russian S-300 system sold to Syria does not bode well with israel, as its security is tested to duress it cannot afford. 

israel conducts calculated responses in Syria in its pursuit to minimize Iranian influence and block advanced weapon transfers to Hezbollah. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, ensuing the israeli raids on Deir El-Zor and the Syrian-Iraqi border of Boukamal on January 13th, Iranian-backed militias have been dispatched to residential areas, fearing additional israeli strikes. 

The shelling pummeled weapon and missile warehouses, and ammunition depots.

Iranian-backed militias including but not limited to Iraqis, regime soldiers, and Afghanis were accounted for the highest death toll registered by israeli strikes. 

israel believes that Iran poses a threat by the buildup of military bases in Qunaitra, Daraa, and As-Suwayda, where 79 bases out of a total of 229 are present. 

israel has benefited from the Syrian conflict in terms of adding more legitimacy to its claim over the Golan Heights, by receiving direct support from impeached President Donald Trump, and by softening the Syrian side of the Golan through aid from israel, as well as international organizations creating a safe environment to tame aspirations of seeking refuge in israel. The illegally occupied Golan Heights is of paramount importance to Israel because of the security buffer zone it serves between its territory and Syria, Lebanon, and the Jordan Valley. The Golan’s supply of fresh water is also a key tenet of its takeover stratagem.  

israel’s Interests 

israel is primarily interested in deterring Iranian influence and constraining Iranian mobility in Syria. israel’s consternation lies in the materialization of the Shia crescent that extends from Tehran to Baghdad, to Damascus, and ending in Beirut. However, due to israel’s incapacity to control outcomes in Syria, as well as its inability to avert entanglement with extremists and the Syrian regime, israel’s contour of actions is delineated by averting attacks on israel from Syria, and hindering arms transfers to Hezbollah, including shipments and convoys via targeted attacks. Moreover, errant mortar fire that lands in israel, whether deliberate or not, has received retaliation from the IDF. Bombing attempts on the israeli side of the Golan Heights have met reprisal by the killing of the 4 men who had planted explosives in August 2020.

israeli jets fly low over Lebanon before hitting Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syria. The berated israeli attack on Masyaf on December 25th of 2020 in the province of Hama is reported to have targeted a missile production facility. The attack took place at the same site where the Al-Kibar plutonium reactor was bombed by israel in 2007. Accordingly, israel seeks precise, ‘defensive’, and pre-emptive strikes to attenuate imminent threats.

Iran in Syria  

Iran uses military sites previously occupied by the regime such as the radar stations in Daraa and As-Suwayda to establish military posts and camps for foreign and local militias arranged by the Quds Force, and IRGC experts. Iran and Hezbollah occupy 67 bases in southwestern Syria, only less than 150 km away from the Golan Heights. Since proximity contrives an imminent threat to israel, it meteorically extirpates sites of arms transfers to Hezbollah; israel targeted the radar brigade on January 6th of this month.

israel has perennially launched pre-emptive strikes on potential dangers; it is an integral cornerstone of its defense policy. According to the IDF annual report; during 2020 israel has dropped more than 500 bombs and smart missiles on Syria and targeted 50 sites therein. 

A scenario of a possible war between israel and the axis of resistance is popular, yet unaffordable by all protagonists. Iran has vowed to avenge the killing of major general Qassem Soleimani without detailing a timeline. Iran and Hezbollah lost many of their high-ranking IRGC generals and cannon fodders in Syria, however, their blueprint of the Shia crescent is coming to fruition. 

israel has new allies on a block that used to be unneighborly; these new friendships might be the long-awaited alternative to a full-blown war.