Analysis by Sandro Joseph Azzam, Staff Writer

March 22nd, 2021

Lebanon faces a systemic banking sector restructuring allowing for the fair and equitable distribution of the losses incurred by banks, the central bank and the government. The country must re-establish itself as a true economic and financial hub that is entirely dissociated from the conflicts in the Middle East. The concept of neutral independence must be adopted: it completely detaches Lebanon from the ongoing Saudi-Iranian war of proxies. I wish I had better news, but my expectation is that, at least in the near future and absent any reform, we will continue to witness the systematic deconstruction of the Lebanese state, be it through its failed political vision or its economic stagnation.

Italy on the other hand is at a turning point in its history with the country granted a golden opportunity with the Draghi premiership. The former European Central Bank head was thrust into power after Matteo Renzi’s tiny “Italia Viva” pulled out of the parliamentary coalition leading to its untimely demise. Draghi now faces the task of circumnavigating Italy past the woes of the COVID-19 pandemic with the help of the Next Generation EU recovery fund. Italy will and should focus on building infrastructure that would allow them to beat their 15-years long stagnation.

While the youth only make up about 18% of our population, they are 100% of our future. Their opinions on where their countries are headed contrasted with where they hope to see them headed have been compiled. We hope that our readers will appreciate the differences in opinions in the various testimonials, all the while noticing the similarities between the two nations on opposite poles of the Mediterranean.

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Margherita Mayr is an International Economics and Finance student from Milan, Italy.

Where do you think Italy is headed in the next 10 years?

“Like most countries hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, Italy is currently facing a scenario that is extremely complex and characterized by uncertainties. However, I believe that, with the necessary strength, it’ll be able to fight the adversities presented in the next 10 years. With the current government led by Mario Draghi, whom with a high probability could also subsequently become President of the Republic, Italy is opting towards a French political model. In fact, Italy’s current government is erroneously defined solely as a “technical one”, when in reality it is more political than it appears. Its aim is to strengthen the public administration, with less decentralization towards the outside of the government’s competencies, as well as an increased power of the police to guarantee public order. Hence, the model that could follow is one of French welfare, with the State’s intervention in sectors that are currently suffering. In particular, the focus should be on family and gender equality, hopefully solving Italy’s demographic issue of denatality, which I perceive as a key indicator of a country’s well-being. In synthesis, this government is asked to spend, spend and spend. Surely, in 10 years, future generations will be the ones carrying the burden of this debt, but as to now, the €209B of Recovery assigned to Italy should improve employment for the young and restore optimism in the economy.”

 

Where would you like to see it headed?

“Italy needs some serious restructuring to take place for it to be considered on the same level as other countries, both from an economic and political standpoint. Public institutions need to become more efficient, less bureaucratic and have technology as their focal point. It is key that the country is put in the position to exploit its competitive advantage, which originates from the differentiation in quality and approach to work. I would like to witness Italy anticipate Europe’s moves, especially its regulation, in order to leverage growing trends such as sustainability. Another objective that I personally consider pivotal is to invest in education: starting from secondary education, young Italians need to be taught with a modern method, which better prepares them for the professional world. Certainly, the national identity and culture will remain central themes dealt with at school, nevertheless, some teaching methods appear too outdated. When it comes to Universities, I would like to see these go back to creating a true link between the students and the different industries, removing a system of nepotism, which is still incumbent and truly following the individual students throughout the academic journey. A lack of attention in Universities, may obstacle in some cases a high-quality level of teaching and a system of meritocracy.”

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Georges Haydar is a Computer and Communications Engineering student at the American University of Beirut. He is originally from Beirut, Lebanon.

Where do you think Lebanon is headed in the next 10 years?

“For the moment, it's all in the dark. As far as the status quo stands, the next 10 years will be painful. I think, in the best case, we'll get back to our pre-COVID economy level, which means we basically wasted 10 years. However, it all depends on the 2022 elections, both the Parliament and the Presidency. Given the whole political resentment people are feeling towards the ruling class and given the way our electoral system is set up, I believe 2022 can be somewhat of a fertile ground for underdogs to come up by bonding around non-sectarian party candidates. If 40 or 50 independent candidates can get elected, I believe all options are possible. The country could go anywhere from Afghanistan to Switzerland. But before getting to that, there's a lot of variables when it comes to the voting process. Gerrymandering, ruling class dirty tricks, voter turnout, campaigns, media outlets bias are all variables that can make or break a candidate. So, we're really in the dark, at least for the next year and a half. The only good (?) thing that might happen is a government formation to just make this transition period as smooth as possible.”

Where would you like to see it headed?

“Where I want Lebanon to head is to the place where we should've gone a long time ago. We can use the devaluation of the LBP to our advantage: start manufacturing, exporting, make use of the huge pool of talent we have to attract outsourcing jobs… We can attract foreign investors very easily if we can guarantee the political stability of the country. We can bring back Lebanon to its rightful place, all we need is capable people who genuinely want the betterment of our country.”

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Luca Venditti is originally from Monza, Italy and studies International Economics and Finance at Bocconi University in Milan.

Where do you think Italy is headed in the next 10 years?

“It is extremely hard to identify the future of my country, as the Recovery Plan clearly represents a turning point for the Italian economy, and I’m not sure if we’ll be ready to take this unique chance. Of course, as things stand, it is extremely unlikely that we’ll be able to solve our problems, as politicians don’t have the skills and knowledge required in order to create a plan focused on the long-term. Italy is completely stuck now, due to a complex bureaucracy which prevents any type of innovation, and a political system overwhelmed by corruption. Let’s also add that taxes are making entrepreneurship impossible (also discouraging foreign investors), and that the public system is too heavy and expensive to be sustained in the long-term. There’s only one thing that can give us hope for the future: We are giving our money in the hands of the best man we have, Mario Draghi. This wasn’t obvious at all before it happened, as by choosing the technocrats Italian politicians clearly admitted their inability to address such tough situation, and their ability to form a great coalition comprising almost all the parties must be recognised. 

In conclusion, as I said before, Italy has so many social, political, and economic problems that it will be extremely hard to reverse course, but at least we are in the hands of technocrats and not in the ones of our political class.”

Where would you like to see it headed?

“I would like to finally see a country that can follow and even inspire the advancements that other states are making. Italy is not able to embrace progress at the moment, as we don’t have a system that gives us the possibility to innovate. In the next 10 years, I would like to see a country that has reformed its bureaucracy and the tax system, a political class that has been able to address the needs of its citizens with competency, an economy that has invested in the green transition, and a school system that has the ability to educate its students. In addition, there are also some other problems that belong to the European Union. For example, I would like to see an electronic currency fully regulated in order to solve the long-lasting issue of the black economy, an integration of the fiscal and banking system, and institutions more oriented to address the national needs.

These are all ambitious goals, but Italy must face and achieve them as they are the priorities of the country.”

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Originally from Beirut, Lebanon, Tarek Eid studies management in a pre-law track at the London School of Economics and Political Science. 

Where do you think Lebanon is headed in the next 10 years? 

“Where Lebanon is headed in the next 10 years depends entirely on who is in power until then. If we (the revolution) succeed in implementing a new electoral law, elect a democratic parliament representing the people, implement a real transitional emergency government, then elect a new president, then a new government, then, and only then, can Lebanon start its healing process.”

 

Where would you like to see it headed?

“If the above steps are followed, I am confident Lebanon will be in a better place in 10 years. If not, we are entering an even darker phase. When they remove the so-called import subsidies on food and medicine, the people will literally die of hunger. We will get no help from anyone if our current criminal political class is still in power. Most importantly, in order for us to get out of this mess, we have to convince the few remaining sheep following these political party that they do not work for their best interest. On the political side, we have to prepare efficient candidates for the 2022 election, as well as work with lawyers and trusted MPs (if any) to draft a new democratic electoral law.”

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Beatrice Malnati studies Environmental and Natural Resources Economics at the University of Copenhagen. She is originally from Varese, Italy. 

Where do you think Italy is headed in the next 10 years? 

“Every time you read an article about ‘where will X country be in 10 years?’, people usually talk about economics and innovation and whatnot. But after this crazy year that we’ve been through, people have realized that you can model stuff and try to make predictions, but a crisis could always be around the corner. I’m pretty sure that if you ask the average Italian “where do you see Italy in 10 years from an economic point of view”, they’ll say ‘it’s going to be terrible, we’re going to have a crisis’ but that’s what I’ve been hearing ever since I started understanding a bit about economics. I will skip over this because it’s very hard to tell and the impression that I always got was that people in Italy fear the worst, just because, Italy is Italy. What I would like to talk about the social point of view because […] that’s something you can predict more because even though you can spark a revolution which can make a big difference (like what we saw with Black Lives Matter), the fact is that things don’t really change like that. It doesn’t take one month of protests to change society and Italy is struggling with patriarchy and sexism. Even if some crazy events happen and people start protesting, Italians have been raised in this environment. Even though I believe in equality, I don’t think that social change will happen as quickly as we all think it will happen.”

Where would you like to see it headed?

“My hope is that Italy will catch up with northern European countries because the gap is the main reason why I don’t want to go back. When I moved to Copenhagen, […] I realized pretty quickly that I feel free as a woman which is something that you cannot pay for. This is something that needs to change in Italy: you don’t feel free as a woman, you’re afraid when you’re alone and it’s dark outside etc. This is something that needs to change in Italy. On a more general note, I would say that the Italian mentality and how we’re a bit backwards compared to the rest of Europe, is going to take a long time to change because we’re very stuck on traditions which is good because it gives a sense of belonging but can also be detrimental. I don’t see change happening anytime soon, definitely not in 10 years. I haven’t seen change in 23 years, I don’t think it will start now.”

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Maria Wehbe is an Education student at the American University of Beirut. Of Lebanese extraction, she is from Beirut. 

Where do you think Lebanon is headed in the next 10 years? 

“Regardless of everything that is currently going on in the country, I really think that change will be seen in the next 10 years, especially with the youth that is so driven and determined to make this change, no matter what it takes. We really do want to see our country prosper, and we’re not giving up anytime soon. I’d like to see the country headed in the direction of peace.”

Where would you like to see it headed?

“I’d like to see the country free of corruption and I really hope that in the next 10 years, Lebanon will be a country that all of us will be looking forward to returning to instead of looking forward to leaving it.”

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An Italian from Venice, Giovanni Berlin studies International Economics and Finance at Bocconi University

Where do you think Italy is headed in the next 10 years? 

“Honestly, I don’t know. It all depends on the decisions the current government will take and the long-term objectives it sets. What is certain is that the brain drain is a serious danger for the future of Italy, as the generational turnover is not occurring as it should and the basis for the future are not properly set.”

Where would you like to see it headed?

“I would like Italy to be a more dynamic country, a place free from bureaucracy and a center of attraction for new investments. To achieve these objectives, many things have to change, Italians first. They are often too pessimistic and have no faith in the future, instead, they should be more conscious of their capabilities and of the potential of the country where they live.”

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Sabine Kyrillos is a Lebanese law student attending Université Paris II Panthéon-Assas

Where do you think Lebanon is headed in the next 10 years? 

“I’m neither an economist nor a financier but, we know that politics have a massive impact on the economy. I unfortunately believe that the next 2, 3 or 4 years will be particularly difficult for Lebanon and the country will hit the lowest of lows. After that period of time, I believe we will be able to get back on our feet. We will either have the chance to rid ourselves of the political class with qualified and trustworthy men and women to get the country back on track or, the alternative is disastrous and will mark the end of Lebanon. We will end up in a Venezuelan scenario where Lebanon digs its own grave.” 

Where would you like to see it headed?

I’m convinced that Lebanon is a small state that is thus easy to reform through its massive potential be it thanks to its human capital, tourism or others. These are all easy to take advantage of, but the unfortunate situation is that the political leadership fails to exploit this potential. […] We might suffer with the same political class for the next few years but, one they’re gone, we will be able to find a group of experts who haven’t worked in politics for a day in their life which would then be able to help the country get back on its feet.

Many thanks to Margherita Mayr, Luca Venditti, Beatrice Malnati, Giovanni Berlin, Maria Wehbe, Georges Haydar, Sabine Kyrillos and Tarek Eid for their touching testimony.