Opinion Foreign Policy Analysis by Tala Karkanawi, Staff Writer

December 5th, 2020

With Joe Biden’s possible victory of the 2020 US elections collected sighs of relief from multiple governmental institutions from Europe and world-wide, the reaction coming from the middle east and most Gulf States was far less uniform, and far more concerning to say the least. 

U.S.-Saudi and U.S.-israeli relations faced a historic cooling over the course of the last administration Biden worked in, under President Barack Obama. With Biden coming into place claiming the presidential throne, he and his foreign policy team comprehend the political world of the Middle East completely differently than Trump does. Joe Biden’s presidential election victory is set to guide in significant and momentous foreign policy changes over the course of the next four years, and, above all, an intensely different and diverse communication style when it comes to U.S. allies and opponents.

Why will it be different? That is because tons of countries, especially the Gulf states, were able to benefit from Trump and his presidency because of his way of consolidation to power, attaining a business and economic mind-set unlike a political one. Trump’s transactional, business-like approach when it came to diplomacy benefited the states of israel, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. As well as his policies against Iran had increased the closeness between Trump’s administration and the Gulf states that have been fighting a war of power against the Islamic State of Iran.

“It is no longer guaranteed that Riyadh will remain in Washington’s good graces,” analysts at political risk consultancy AKE Group wrote in an article that was published at CNBC at late September. Certainly, during an early democratic debate that happened in 2019, Biden and his administration have mentioned how they are planning on making Saudi Arabia look like “the pariah that they are.” Governmental officials of Saudi Arabia articulated about their concern if Biden will attain the presidential throne and how this would be similar to Obama’s policies and the actions that were done under Obama’s era. Particularly stressing on the idea of returning the Iranian Nuclear deal which was known as the JCPOA.  This would put the United States in an uncomfortable position with the Gulf states, possibly risking the successful diplomatic relations that Trump and his administration had built over the past four years. 

“Arab states like Saudi Arabia will be seeking allies as their close relationship with the United States weakens,” said Ryan Bohl, who is a Middle East and North Africa analyst at Stratfor. This is already shown when UAE and Bahrain established diplomatic ties with israel. It is also evident how Biden’s administration’s new goal is to encourage the same intensity and the same direction Trump had taken when he managed to bring diplomatic ties between some Arab states and israel. However, one problem has risen to the surface, Kamala Harris 

Taking upon one of the most important responsibilities in the world, the vice president of the United States can furnace extensive and significant roles for themselves. For example, Mike Pence led the Trump administration's coronavirus plan and the eradication of the virus by leading the taskforce. Joe Biden oversaw and played an essential role in Barack Obama's plan to withdraw thousands of troops from Iraq and back home to the United States. Dick Cheney basically ran all significant and essential plans of George W. Bush when he was a president, as well as handling post 9/11 situation when the citizens went out of control with fear. The Biden administration will most probably anticipate in reversing most of Donald Trump’s plans in the Middle East and as well as adding new policies to their foreign affairs’ responsibilities, and those responsibilities will fall on none but the other, Vice President Kamala Harris.

Kamala Harris, who made history by being the first POC and the first female to ever take one of the most important roles in the US, the vice presidency, is seen as a hero to many females wanting to antedate a role in politics, governmental institutions, and much more. She claims how she paid tribute to all women from all ethnicities and has shattered the barriers that have kept white men locked at the highest level of politics and governmental duties in over two centuries. However, Kamala Harris isn’t the angel everyone is trying to paint her out to be. 

Harris supports a supposed two-state solution when it comes to the israeli-Palestinian dispute, however, her past actions prove to say otherwise. She has pleased “pro-Israel” circles by speaking out in favour of israel’s “right to defend itself” from attacks coming from the Gaza Strip by Hamas, that she doesn’t believe that the United States should pressure israel on formulating peace with the Palestinians because peace and resolution “cannot be imposed by outside parties.”

News from Tehran have been circulating how they are entertaining an optimistic reaction towards Biden-Harris victory of attaining the US presidential throne. With expectations that the new administration will be able to revive their previous commitment on the nuclear deal as well as committing to a new international peace treaty with Iran. Kamala mentioned how Trump’s withdrawal from the Iranian Nuclear Deal endangered the US. This deal will not only give access to power to Iran but will also decline the diplomatic relationships Trump has built for the past four years with Saudi Arabia and their allies. Kamala Harris mentioned how she “looks toward expanding it” and how they were “in the Iran nuclear deal with friends, with allies.”

In 2019, she also voted in favour of resolutions to end the support coming from the United States in regards to the Saudi-Yemen war in Yemen and to block arms and military sales to the Saudi kingdom as well. These policies were passed in Congress; however, Trump was able to veto them out. "The United States and Saudi Arabia still have mutual areas of interest, such as counterterrorism, where the Saudis have been strong partners. And we should continue to coordinate on that front," she said. "But we need to fundamentally revaluate our relationship with Saudi Arabia, using our leverage to stand up for American values and interests." Her direction when it comes to foreign policy for the United States, especially when it interferes with a country of power and importance like Saudi Arabia, really puts the entire situation into question on whether she wants to keep a strong diplomatic relationship with the royal family or disregard all the work Trump was able to accomplish? 

It is not evidently clear what Kamala Harris could possibly mean to the Middle East, and to the Gulf States specifically; however, what is clear is more concetely how Biden coming into place will be completely different with how things will be running now than it was for the past four years. The Trump show will end on the 21st of January for sure with another plot coming into the spotlight.