Opinion Analysis by Johnny Achkar, Featured Writer

June 8th, 2021

In the upcoming French presidential elections in 2022, the possibility of Ms. Le Pen gaining the presidency might result in a diplomatic shock on par with the Brexit referendum vote in the United Kingdom in 2016 and the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the United States later that year. This is a frightening outcome to numerous individuals on the liberal side of the political spectrum. Ms. Le Pen’s latest attempt to capture the presidency reminds me of a Lebanese saying ‘الثالثة ثابتة’ or its English equivalent of ‘Third Time’s the Charm’ While the term “Madame la présidente” may sound foreign or far-fetched it should no longer be considered as unlikely. 

Ms. Le Pen is known in France as a far right, anti-immigrant, and anti-globalization figure. Today, though, the French are witnessing a kinder, gentler version of Le Pen. A person who promotes feminism and national solidarity. Commits to environmental protection and strengthening the European Union rather than abandoning it. Ms. Le Pen has undertaken a sort of rebranding, as she appears to have abandoned the extreme views held by her father and former presidential candidate himself, Jean-Marie. Ms. Le Pen's latest visit to her family's home in western France, where she posed for selfies with supporters, schmoozed with oystermen, and gave TV journalists boat rides, revealed a rebranding effort toward respectability. Florent de Kersauson, a well-known businessperson, was the honored guest. An individual who was transitioning to Ms. Le Pen's National Rally after decades of supporting center-right candidates. Ms. Le Pen embraced Mr. de Kersauson, a retired senior executive at telecommunications behemoth Alcatel, as the kind of establishment personality that could convince people that her party was more than a scrappy family enterprise.

Ms. Le Pen, 52, is set to be President Emmanuel Macron's biggest opponent in a repeat of the 2017 election a year before the next presidential election in France. Ms. Le Pen has been seeking to reclaim her reputation for the last four years, after a failed campaign marred by an incoherent letter and punctuated by a disastrous debate against Mr. Macron. According to recent polls, Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Macron are tied in the first round of next year's presidential election, with Ms. Le Pen trailing Mr. Macron by only a few percentage points in a second-round runoff. 

She has shifted her economic message, abandoning the party's opposition to the euro and the European Union, which enraged conservatives on the right. She now suggests forming a government of national unity by appointing the best and most seasoned individuals, including left-wing politicians. Despite adhering to the party's radical nationalist, anti-immigrant vision, Ms. Le Pen has stepped up her efforts to "un-demonize" her group, which has long been associated with anti-Semitism and xenophobia. Part of the endeavor has been to humanize her. According to a flurry of recent news stories, she adored cats so much that she became a licensed breeder, specializing in Bengals and Somalis.

There are other reasons that could help Le Pen, who has referred to Macron as "the last breath of the old regime," win. One is his treatment of the pandemic, which has been tainted, at least in the minds of clinicians, by his recent refusal to obey scientific advisors' recommendations to enact a more strict lockout to prevent a third wave of infections. On April 3, he eventually applied travel constraints to the whole world. However, the outbreak has killed over 96,000 people in France, and the current epidemic, exacerbated by the spread of new strains, is overwhelming hospital intensive care units in Paris and the country's north. Moreover, According to a recent poll conducted by the Elabe Institute in France, the majority of French citizens believe their president did not treat the COVID-19 situation as well as he should have.

Macron's latest headache is the issue of soldiers warning of civil war. A group of active soldiers has warned that France is on the verge of civil war, weeks after a group of retired generals raised similar fears. An open letter published on April 9 in the right-wing journal Valeurs Actuelles warns that France's collapse due to terror, Islamism, and institutional hate will eventually lead to civil war, requiring the army's intervention. The second letter is said to come from a group of committed soldiers stationed in Mali, Afghanistan, and the Central African Republic. They have also been patrolling the streets of France as part of the "Sentinelle" operation in the aftermath of recent terror attacks. The soldiers write, "This is a professional appraisal we are offering." “We've seen this fall in many crisis-stricken countries. It is the precursor to collapse, anarchy, and crime. And, contrary to popular belief, instability and violence would result from a democratic insurgency rather than a military rebellion.”

In recent years, France has been shaken by violent outbreaks involving various ethnic groups, which have been fueled by drug trafficking, turf wars, racial tensions, and terrorist attacks. The government has so far failed to tackle these issues. The slaying of Samuel Paty, a teacher in a northwestern Paris suburb, and a police officer provided fresh proof that an Islamist underground has managed to take root in France and elude the authorities. Mr. Macron has tried to solve these issues by addressing France’s colonial past, notably in Algeria, and the dire economic conditions that pervades many French suburbs. Mr. Macron has failed in both pursuits. Not to mention his fumbling of the crisis that arose when he stated his defense of showing cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad. On the other hand, the president understands that he must tackle these issues, given the fact that 250 people have been killed in France by terrorist attacks and gang violence in the last five years.

As France’s presidential contenders continue to do battle in the upcoming months leading to the nation’s elections. A lot can happen in these approaching months. It remains to be seen if Ms. Le Pen will continue to capitalize on the numerous political mistakes that President Macron is committing, or her third shot at the presidency will end up like the others in failure. Time will tell, but what can be said is that it is Marine Le Pen’s race to lose.