Analysis by Gaelle Nohra, Staff Writer

June 29th, 2020

The UK-EU official split on January 31st 2020 marked the termination of 47 years of British membership in the European institution, leaving the exit door wide open for potential frontrunners such as Italy, Poland, and Denmark[i]. Threats of other leaves became possible after Britain. But since mid-February, COVID-19 gradually started occupying the firstly ranked agenda item of central authorities, providing the Brexit tale with, a more or less slowdown of events, and raising the chance for a ‘no-deal’ Brexit to realize.

While the exit is unquestioned, the after-Brexit conditions are far from homogeneous and will presumably set in motion multifarious repercussions ranging from trade disruptions to security matters in Northern Ireland. Four ‘Brexits’ are therefore identified, mostly differentiated by the separation degree.

1.No-deal Brexit

Britain leaves the single market and custom unions, and resorts to standard international trading rules with tariffs and border checks implemented. The leave encompasses all EU institutions including the European Court of Justice and Europol. Financial contribution to the EU budget is equally ceased. Moreover, a no-deal implies a hard border in Northern Ireland, which will likely re-ignite sectarian violence. In addition, “no specific arrangements”[ii] will be in place for EU citizens already in the UK. On the other hand, a no-deal guarantees the British sovereignty over migration policies. 

2. Hard Brexit

Definitive UK-EU separation and freedom for the British government to set its own rules and regulations. Similarly, to the no-deal scenario, the UK is detached from the different EU institutions. This option is said to be advantageous for national businesses only trading in Britain as they would escape tariffs, quotas, and extra inspection contrarily to foreign exports, as well as enjoy a non-competitive market. If the company is however relying on EU proponents from abroad, the entire case is altered. In terms of settlement, Europeans and British living in the UK and EU respectively are allowed to stay where they are, but as of 2021, EU citizens migrating to the UK will be required to apply for a ‘settled status’ in order to have complete freedom of movement as Brexit will have implications on the Schengen agreements.

3. Softer Brexit

This scenario exhibits much more UK-EU alignment, as the name suggests. The softer the Brexit, the higher chance there is for the UK to preserve its membership in some of the EU bodies. While small tariffs could be in order, the relatively easy exportation process puts national businesses back on the track of competition. Similarly, moving in and out of the UK happens more smoothly with little changes in place. There would be little to no need for a border establishment with Northern Ireland, as major EU trade agreements won’t be thrown into disarray. 

4.The Chequers deal

Known for being the middle ground solution between a hard and soft Brexit. Positive UK-EU relations are maintained through the creation of EU-UK free trade area and a common rulebook. While freedom of movement is restricted, there is room for other deals to take birth. 

January 31st marked the end of the first tumultuous Brexit journey, and led the way towards the second phase: the transition period. The transition period is set to end on December 31st 2020 and is primarily designed to “give some breathing space to allow new UK-EU negotiations to take place.”[iii] It is a period during which actions such as traveling to and from the EU, freedom of movement, and UK-EU trade deals are kept constant and unchanged. According to Cabinet Minister Michael Gove, the transition won’t be extended. Prime Minister Boris Johnson also expressed his hopes in reaching a trade deal with the EU before the end of the year[iv]. In simpler terms, December 2020 is now the deadline for the UK to escape a no-deal scenario and make sure it doesn’t fall subject to the WTO trade rules. 

With the British COVID-19 chaotic scene and the central authority’s preoccupation with coping measures, the drawbacks of a no-deal Brexit would equalize, if not exceed, the damage created by the 2008 financial crash, and as long as Boris Johnson refuses to consider an extension, no-deal Brexit remains the most fast approaching tunnel. 

[i] EU snub: Who will leave the European Union NEXT?, By Georgina Laud, February 1st 2020. Retrieved from https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1236213/EU-news-who-will-leave-the-European-Union-next-Italexit-Germany-France-news

[ii] Brexit: what would a ‘no deal’ look like? By Chris Morris, July 20th 2018. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-44904619

[iii] Brexit: What is a transition period? By Tom Edgington, January 31st 2020. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50838994

[iv] Brexit news: What would ending the transition period with no deal really mean? By Kaisha Langton. June 19th 2020. Retrieved from https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1297934/brexit-news-transition-period-no-deal-WTO-terms