Opinion policy analysis by Sasha Matar contributor

April 13th, 2021

“The Palestinians are the only nation in the world that feels with certainty that today is better than what the days ahead will hold. Tomorrow always heralds a worse situation."

-  Mahmoud Darwish, Palestinian National Poet

 

Fifteen years after the last elections were held in Palestine, President Mahmoud Abbas’s office announced earlier this year that the Palestinian Authority (PA) will be holding elections to renew the legitimacy of its administrative institutions. For this reason, the Palestinian Legislative Council’s (PLC) elections are scheduled to take place on the 22ndof May and the presidential elections on the 31st of July.

To an already divided society with limited self-governance over the palestinian territories, this announcement came as a surprise to the Palestinians after years of political stalling, despite the many similar electoral announcements they had heard over the last years. Palestinians seemed to be cautiously optimistic with this news. Over the last decade, repeated attempts to hold elections had reached a deadlock. Only this time, in a gesture widely interpreted as an attempt to re-establish democracy and catch the eye of the international community, this announcement hailed from a presidential decree issued on January the 15th precising the dates of the consecutive elections.

“Palestine is full of capable young leaders who can replace the bunch of corrupt rulers”, argues a 32-year-old Palestinian activist. As a matter of fact, an entire generation had been deprived of practicing their democratic and political right to vote due to internal divisions between the bitter enemies Fatah and Hamas since 2007.

What happened between Fatah (Secular party) and Hamas (Hard-line Islamic party)?

Fatah and Hamas are the main political factions in Palestine. Since the last elections, their history is one of resentment and violence. For a nation that is resisting an occupational power, Palestine became further divided within itself.After the 2006 elections, technically the second elections held for the PLC, the Hamas movement (حركة المقاومة الاسلامية), won a majority of seats in the Legislative Council (74 out of the 132 seats). Hamas party is, however, considered a terrorist organization by the US, EU, and israel. 

For the Hamasists, this victory meant ending the political control of the Arafat political party Fatah (حركة التحرير الفلسطينية), currently led by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, better known by his acronym Abu Mazen.

Abu Mazen, who personally insisted on making those elections happen back then, had been deceived by the elections’ results. President Mahmoud Abbas has been the chair of the Palestinian Liberation Organization since 2004 (PLO; منظمة التحرير الفلسطينية) – the official permanent negotiator with israel that has acknowledged its presence in 1993 and accepted the right to live peacefully with the Occupation. The election results expected him to confront the dominance of an ideology similar to that of the Lebanese-Hezbollah. Hamas does not recognize israel and is obstructing any potential peaceful settlement via an armed resistance.

Moreover, the Middle East Quartet (UN, US, EU, Russia) which is the entity involved in mediating the israel-Palestinian Peace Process, was not ready to assist a Hamas-led government, and the secularists Fatah supporters were resentful. The 2006 “holy-land-quake” stimulated by Hamas’s democratic conquest of the majority of the parliamentary seats, meant that economic and humanitarian aids to the Palestinian Authority (PA) will be halted from the international and regional communities until Hamas recognizes israel, accepts previous peace agreements such as the Oslo Accords, and renounces violence towards israel. Naturally, Hamas leaders were not willing to compromise the basic philosophies of their movement. Thus, international sanctions followed, inciting strife and discord among the Palestinians, notably at the moment the US, EU, israel and much of the rest of the world offered more than $80 million in funds to non-Hamas parties. 

From a different perspective, the overwhelming victory that Hamas scored signaled the Palestinians’ desire in changing the fundamental principles of the regime and redefining the PA’s internal and external policies while reexamining the basic approach towards israel.

Tensions between the two factions triggered deadly clashes among civilians which eventually led to Hamas’s forceful takeover of the Gaza Strip in 2007. As a response, the Hamas-led cabinet was dissolved by the PA President and an independent government formed by Mahmoud Abbas was appointed in the West Bank.

What is challenging this long-lasting status-quo now?

·      Restoring US-Palestinian diplomatic Relationships:

Over the years, the US has demonstrated itself as the sole sponsor to mediating between the Palestinians and israelis. Since its inception, the Trump administration focused on fostering the US-israeli relationship. While addressing the problem, former US President Trump continuously relinquished the israeli’s responsibility in causing the conflict and laid it all on the Palestinians. 

·      Reinstating UNRWA funds:

In 2017, Trump designated Jerusalem as israel’s capital. Then in 2018, shut down the PLO’s office in Washington DC and withheld all funding to the UN Refugee Aid program (UNRWA). Those events one after another, hence marked  “the slap of the century” for the Palestinians.

What Trump called the “deal of the century” to establish peace and economic prosperity for both countries, turned out to be the US’s worst vision to improve the Palestinians’ lives, especially after the news of the West-Bank annexation, that didn’t see the light of day after all.

Reaching the depth of their despair after losing pan-Arab support in light of the normalization deals with israel, Palestinians felt betrayed by their neighbors.

For the long-lasting enemies, an alliance was the only remaining solution to save Palestine…

Fast forward to five days before the Biden Inauguration Day (January 20, 2021), Abu Mazen issued the presidential decree announcing the dates of Palestinian elections with the hopes of ending the PA’s diplomatic isolation and renewing ties with the Obama doppelgänger President.

Under Turkish and Egyptian patronage, the two rival Palestinian factions’ representatives, Ismael Haniyeh and Mahmoud Abbas, started the peace negotiation towards forming a coalition government.

What are some barriers to these elections?

·      In the 2006 elections, israel threatened to prohibit voting in occupied-East-Jerusalem. Eventually, it proposed facilitating the travel of eligible Palestinian voters to special centers outside the city boundaries. Currently, uncertainty emerges in fear of a last-minute israeli show, disallowing the casting of ballots.

·      International communities are expected to reject any political race including Hamas.

·      It is still unclear if the Hamas will allow Fatah campaigns in the Gaza strip and vice versa.

·      Like Hamas, it is possible that Fatah will not accept the outcome if it wasn’t in their favor.  Could this enflame another 2006 scenario? After all, the Palestinian’s division benefits the occupation. 

Not only are the Palestinian voting this year, but israelis as well. PM Netanyahu faced with continuous corruption charges, resolved the government for the fourth time in two years to test the public support to his far-right principles and extend his time in office. However, before his obvious victory, israeli PM sparked controversy in a statement to the media: “I’m going to bring you direct flights from Tel Aviv to Mecca if I am victorious on the 23rd of March.”

What are MBS and Netanyahu up to? Should this announcement reinforce the joint efforts to unite Palestinians in order to minimize the loss of regional support?