Opinion Policy Analysis by Reem El Dana, Staff Writer

December 7th, 2020

B-52s roaming over Iran’s borders surely do magnify the psychological warfare between the US and Iran, but it’s merely a show of power, as long as the attacks on US assets in the Middle East do not register significant American causalities and precisely deaths. Specifically, as long as Washington is not provoked by its archenemy or its subsidiary of proxies. 

The remainder of Trump’s tenure is dotted with a precipitous inclination to make impetuous decisions, ranging from changing the landscape of homeland security and foreign affairs, to regressing Biden’s guarantee to engage with the Iranian leadership apropos their nuclear program, to dropping bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Therefore, the already flammable region won’t gush, bar a strike clamoring the crossing of the red line. 

Psychological warfare includes overt and covert propaganda, sabotage and counter sabotage, support in subversive activities, escape and skirting. It’s employed during times of war, threat of war, and peace to attain national objectives. It’s intended to deceive, intimidate, undermine, and impact the emotions, conduct, and thinking of a rival.

It’s widely acknowledged that the CIA and Carter’s administration in 1979 did not quite anticipate Iran’s national revolution. Intelligence often fails like it did in Iraq, but also succeeds in pre-empting or dodging imminent threats like the Russian Iranian interference in the 2020 US elections, and the CIA’s interception of clandestine Iranian nuclear-activities. 

Translating intelligence worthy findings into covert operations, intimidating adversaries by the use of military and strikes, and deploying a constellation of firepower like the USS Abraham Lincoln, bombers, destroyers, and fighters have innate psy-war importance; they emanate from and lead to policy decisions and consequences.

The dovish and hawkish US foreign policy stances on Iran have historically mollified and beset the US’ allies as they’re perennially ardent of deterring and containing Iran. They reviled the JCPOA and rejoiced when Trump exited the deal. The remainder of Trump’s time in office, a very sensible timeframe, could very well be a ticking clock for Tel Aviv and Riyadh to take action. The mooted meeting between Netanyahu, Pompeo and MBS that allegedly took place on November 22nd could well be a corroboration for an extended unified axis against Iran as more Gulf states join the ranks. Trump’s incumbency resulting in Israel normalizing ties with three Arab states proves that psy-war is a crucial element to the resolvement of the Middle East’s long existing conflicts; it united proponents to subvert the hegemony of a common rival.

What justifies BUFF’s (Big Ugly Fat Fella) recent deployment is the inextricable liaison between the IAEA report issued on November 11th, the announcement to reduce US troops in Afghanistan and Iraq on the 17th, the ensuing attacks on the US embassy in Baghdad, and Trump’s advice seeking then abstention from bombing Iran on the 19thof November. 

The announcement of troop reduction met a paradoxical response as four rockets struck the US embassy in Baghdad’s fortified green zone, an act of power flexing, albeit a month-long truce. 

The flaunting of American might may be put in action if aggressions and attacks linked to Iran-backed militias target US assets, said General Frank McKenzie, CENTCOM chief after the announcement of troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq.

Equally true is the possibility of an Israeli strike on Iranian targets, if greenlit by Trump. 

As Soleimani’s anniversary nears in January 2021, a portended Iranian avengement foments the continuation of attacks on US assets and raises the stakes of a full-scale conflict. Short of an assault cessation, provocation by Iranian-backed militias will brew the incendiary environment to unravel into an unrestricted zone of conflict.

Aware of the delicacy of Biden’s office takeover phase, Iran has asked its proxies to halt attacks on US assets until January 20th, 2021. Yet, the IDF is on alert and preparing to embrace for retaliatory strikes by Iran on Israeli land or through Iranian proxies in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza, in the case the US strikes Iran. 

The roving of two B-52 bombers over the Middle East dovetails American supremacy and readiness for combatanytime, anywhere, as tensions spike between Tehran and Washington. President Trump is itching to bomb Iran’s Natanz as Iran is undauntedly surpassing its nuclear enrichment, enabling it to produce two nuclear bombs by Spring2021 . 

Lame duck President Trump is exhausting every option to backslide President elect Joe Biden’s endeavor from rejoining the JCPOA 2021 and is causing affliction that he might initiate covert or overt operations against Iran or its allies shortly before the end of his term. 

Pundits’ analyses in the last few days diverged on the message behind the deployment of the B-52 mission that left the Minot Air Base in North Dakota on a short notice for a long-range mission.

CENTCOM announced that the BUFF’S mission is to “deter aggression and reassure U.S. partners and allies”. This message left ample space for fear and warmongering to substantiate, the possibility of a pre-emptive strike attack on US rivals including Iran and Iran-backed militias in Iraq. The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and Iraq was criticized at home and abroad for the consequences it will bear as it’ll certainly cut the leverage Biden will have over the Taliban. Furthermore, the cutback of American troops in Iraq means more power will be conceded to Iran and the militias it backs, in addition to the paring down of the combat size against ISIL and its potential resurfacing. 

Cautious of crossing any red line, a Middle East inferno is unwelcomed by all parties. Surpassing uranium enrichment levels as per JCPOA limitations does not necessarily mean that Tehran is on the move to produce a bomb, Tehran can equally play her fair share of psy-war, and the threat its proxies represent is not to be undermined a bit. 

The Israelis are pundits of psy-war too; they, the Mossad, will do what it takes to stop Iran from having a nuclear bomb. Stuxnet, assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists, and the series of explosions that hit Iranian military sites are suspected to be orchestrated by Israel. Today, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the executive director of Project 111, or Amad, responsible for military-related nuclear activities was assassinated in Tehran.

B-52s, IDF on high alert, and not-so secret Israeli visits to Saudi are an omen of the highly combustible term until Trump’s presidential tenure is over. Covert operations may prevail until January 20th since they ‘re useful to at least, slow down Iran’s nuclear program. After all, IAEA reports validated Trump’s long-time conjecture that Iran is hidingsome of its nuclear actions, and after all, the Mossad is in Iran. 

The smallest étincelle of fire will have Washington, Tel Aviv, Riyadh, Tehran and all of its proxies contend with a war in perpetuity.