A Fight Against Time? - What the political changes of the post-covid era look like in the Middle East
Opinion analysis by Nour AlMortada, Featured Writer
November 11th, 2021
When speaking about politics, we often reference important historical events that created a shift in the political reality. And while experts may disagree on many things, these events’ validity has been uncontended. Such events include Westphalia, which established the modern-day nation state, World War I, marked the end of great empires, and World War II marked the beginning of nuclear warfare, the fall of the Berlin war marked the end of the Cold War and then 9/11 marked the rise of non-state actors. The majority of the youth have not known a day where the United States of America was not the single most powerful state, but if we were to ask someone in their 90s, their answer might surprise you. The different events marked the fall and rise of different players, and with that, a change in global politics. Today’s Berlin wall is the Covid-19 Pandemic, and everyone alive today is witnessing a major shift, regionally and internationally.
The pandemic helped expose many faults in today’s “empires”, whether financial or social. Countries we previously hailed and coveted life in became topics of discussion as people began to look at them differently. But countries that are still being left out of the discussion are those in a particular region, the Middle East and North Africa. As the pandemic brought about the camouflaged failures of more powerful states, it also further revealed the failures of those systems in the region, where traditional news agencies work to embellish rulers’ work, to the point that if we were to not look further than these news agencies, we would not think much was going on. But taking a deeper look will reveal dangerous information that would answer many questions in the minds of those who do not live in that state. An example of this is Jordan. The attempted coup in early April 2021 raised many alarms for those who had not been paying attention and were not familiar with the background of the royal family.
Even in 2021, and despite Jordan’s status in terms of the economy and corruption, the country is still ranked as an emerging upper-middle-class state, but if we look at the shrinking middle class and increasing poverty, coupled with the continued growth in upper-class wealth, the status is questionable. The people are not oblivious to these changes, as they feel their burden in terms of shrinking disposable income, growing youth unemployment rates, as well as an increase in those living below the poverty rate. Even though the monarchy continues to justify the state of the country, while simultaneously shifting the blame onto the monarch-chosen prime minister and cabinet, and granted, the neighboring conflicts have affected Jordan’s economy, with closed neighboring markets and the refugee crisis, and while everyone attempted to make excuses for the continuously failing Jordanian economic plans, the Pandora papers really brought a new perspective to the discussion. If Jordan’s economy is struggling this bad, and the country is on the continued decline, why is the monarch’s wealth growing at such massive rates, and why is one of the richest monarchs in the world ruling over a poor state? The Jordanian people have been unable to voice their opinions as a massive media blackout was executed moments after the pandora papers leaked. However the growing discontent continues to show through the citizens’ private social media accounts, much of which can be seen on Instagram and Twitter, despite the lesser popularity of the latter.
The discontent towards the monarch and his family, as well as the connected upper-class, has been bubbling for years. The support for prince Hamzah, the king’s half-brother, after the alleged attempted coup (or destabilization, as worded by the monarchy) was insightful for those questioning the king’s strength; prince Hamzah spoke to the people, whether authentic or not, his addressing of the people’s struggle brought the discontent to the surface, but the Pandora Papers raised a whole other issue. The Covid-19 pandemic gave leaders leeway as they managed their affairs, while citizens’ right to protest was suppressed for the sake of the pandemic. Similarly, we see discontent rise in the gulf states, mainly in the United Arab Emirates. For decades, the UAE has been riddled with accusations of human rights abuses, but the past two years have shown a changing global opinion of UAE, with two main groups dominating the discussion. On one end, the economic growth exhibited by Dubai and Abu Dhabi in a mere few decades is praised and admired. On the other hand, major discontent for the country has grown immensely with groups bringing to light issues that would otherwise remain unknown in this security-controlled state . Features such as WhatsApp call and videocall are banned due to the state’s inability to monitor them, and the recent Israeli peace deal caused increased fear by citizens and inhabitants of increased surveillance. Human rights organizations cited arrests of Emirati opposition to the Israeli peace deal, and the recent Israeli Pegasus security firm scandal attached to UAE’s crown prince and Dubai’s supreme leader, Mohammed Bin Rashid al Maktoum, brought more questions to the country’s “freedoms”.
Emirati oppression has been a growing situation for a few decades, but with the leading families making choices that would otherwise go against the popular grain of Emirati social and cultural views, social balance in the UAE is not as stable as it appears, and while compared to its neighbors, UAE is still far more stable, this stability can be brought to question if the high-security state’s citizens and residents were allowed to freely voice their opinions. This can also be said about North African countries such as Egypt and Algeria. These two north African countries are not free from protests and criticism; Egypt’s participation in the 2011 Arab Spring brought the fall of a 20-year dictator, and Algeria’s history with protest and independence movements is nothing short of inspiring, however, taking the state of these two countries into consideration, it comes as a shock to see that protests have essentially stopped. For two consecutive years, Algerian people would protest the ruling political elite, whom they accused of being linked to the ousted-Abdelaziz Bouteflika, however with Covid uncovering massive failures in healthcare infrastructure and the continuedly increasing poverty rates, one would ask themselves why the Algerian people are silent. This partly relates to pandemic laws but with less restrictions, one would expect to see more opposition rising, which has not been the case. The logical assumption would be due to fear of a virus that has crippled the greatest countries in the world. Hwever the other assumption is a bubbling anger, a shared sentiment for most Arab and Middle Eastern youth. In Egypt, with the lift in the state of emergency that has been in place since 2017, one would wonder, how is it that a country which is home to over 100 million citizens has stayed so silent as conditions continue to deteriorate?
Factoring in countries’ responses to the Israeli onslaught on Gaza in May of this year, citizens are becoming more and more critical of their governments, and while a large portion of the MENA region’s population is still blindly loyal to the regimes in power, and despite leaders’ crackdown on opposition in all of the aforementioned states, it is important we focus more on the chatter on the street, because for many states in the region, speaking the truth on social media means imprisonment and harassment for those who dare speak up, but keep in mind that the tides are changing, and renewed and changed government policies show governments’ acknowledgement of growing public discontent, which only confirms prior speculations, but for how long will people stand idle by as their futures and written off due to greed and corruption? The region right now is like a dormant volcano, no one really know when it will erupt, but the eruption is coming, and not much can be done to stop it.
Sources:
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