Aliyev’s Eurasian Adventurism - The Strongman Risks Igniting a Wider Regional Conflict
Opinion Policy Analysis by Johnny Achkar, Featured Writer
June 13th, 2021
Throughout history, many powerful empires and political dynasties have crumbled because of military defeats, social unrest, or revolutions. Despite this, the once-mighty Soviet Union ended with a whimper. As each of the Union's member states unilaterally declared independence, the world's second superpower crumbled like a stack of dominoes. Mikhail Gorbachev, the Union's final naïve and inept leader (but not its first) stood by and watched as the Communist Empire's lands devolved into civil conflict and sectarian strife. These costly political failures paved the path for tyrants and dictators to consolidate power in a number of countries and have resulted in unsolved border conflicts in a number of regions.
Former Azerbaijani president Heidar Aliyev's critics and supporters agree that his shadow will linger for years. He cemented his place at the center of the nation's progress by transforming himself from a Communist apparatchik to a Western-friendly dealmaker. Aliyev, however, was not a follower of a personality cult. Instead, he supported a system of clan-based nepotism known as kumovstvo in Russian. This arrangement placed Aliyev's local Nakhichevan allies in crucial posts, bolstering his power base. It also allowed him to appoint his son, Ilham, as his successor.
The old saying goes ‘Like Father, Like Son’. Azerbaijan's president elevated his wife to the position of "first vice president" on February 21. It may be argued that it was a step toward women's empowerment. Azerbaijan was the first Muslim country to offer women the right to vote a hundred years ago, two years before the United States. However, the appointment was motivated by autocratic and political objectives. The nomination of President Ilham Aliyev's wife, Mehriban Aliyeva, demonstrated the ruling family's attitude of impunity as well as the absence of checks and balances in Azerbaijan's dictatorial political system.
The fall of the Soviet Union not only permitted the ascent of political despots such as Mr. Aliyev, who was once compared to a mafia boss by the US ambassador in Baku, but also led to border conflicts, the fiercest of which was concentrated on Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous region populated by Armenians. A 1994 cease-fire produced one of the "frozen wars" that plague the post-Soviet area after Armenian troops pushed the Azeris out of the area and freed nearby territory.
In late September, the long-simmering war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh or Artsakh exploded. The territory was converted into a desolate wasteland reminiscent of a World War I battlefield because of the severe combat. After three failed cease-fires, a peace accord negotiated by Russia and signed on Nov. 9 ended the six-week conflict that killed hundreds. Mr. Aliyev’s forces have been accused of war crimes and ethnic cleansing.
The conflict drew the attention of regional powers such as Russia and Turkey. Turkey being the most active of the two, having sent weapons, ammo, and Syrian mercenaries to the region. Sultan-in-Chief Erdogan, who possesses imperial dreams of his own, risks aggravating Moscow. The region is within Russia’s sphere of influence. Mr. Aliyev risks escalating tensions by asking for further Turkish involvement in the region. Russia and Turkey had coordinated at times in the past to tamp down tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but the mere notion of Turkish forces in that region will surely infuriate Moscow.
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia signed a cease-fire agreement that called for Armenian troops to leave Nagorno-Karabakh and be replaced by Russian peacekeepers. Azerbaijan gained much of what it had been seeking for years in that deal. Azerbaijan agreed to provide a transport corridor through Armenia to the Azerbaijani territory of Nakhichevan in exchange for Armenia withdrawing its forces from the enclave. Unfortunately, it seems Mr. Aliyev’s taste for glory has not yet abated, as Azerbaijani forces have crossed the border into Armenia several times since the ceasefire took place in a move that seeks to expand Azerbaijan’s control of several villages along the border with Yerevan.
In the past, Russia and Turkey worked together to defuse tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia. However, the uneasy partnership between Turkey and Russia, an ally of Armenia, comes as both countries establish themselves in the Middle East while the US takes a step back. All three countries' relations have gotten more difficult. Turkey quickly appeared on other battlefields where Russia was vulnerable after Russian airstrikes in Syria killed Turkish soldiers earlier this year. Moreover, Mr. Aliyev’s ambitious adventurism risks creating new tensions as Armenia became increasingly reliant on Russia for security as a result of the dispute. Even though Azerbaijan emerged victorious from the conflict, Baku still had to compromise. The devastated territory of Artsakh presently has around 2,000 Russian peacekeepers stationed. This provides Moscow a military presence just north of Iran, but it comes for a price: Russian forces were thrown into the center of one of the world's most persistent ethnic disputes.
I do not think that we will see any measures to stop Mr. Aliyev’s adventurism as the nation has developed a strategic relationship with the West over the years. Baku’s vast oil and gas reserves prove to be an efficient substitute to that of Russia. Unfortunately, we may have to wait until another conflict erupts, one that might involve the wider region, in order to see any type of meaningful response to Mr. Aliyevs’ gambles.