(From Down) to DAWN - Part 1
Opinion Analysis by Rhea Haddad, Staff Writer
January 5th, 2021
After a bumpy rollercoaster ride in 2020, one might expect a turning point at the flip of the calendar. For a long time, the number 21 has long been associated with luck, risk, and dice roll. 21 is the number of spots on a standard die. 21 is the legal age to enter a casino in the United States. 21 is the name given to the family of popular gambling card games, including casino games and blackjack. All of these seem oddly appropriate for a year of uncertainty and instability. The major prize on offer is the opportunity to contain the coronavirus pandemic. Yet, in the interim, there are major obstacles to health, economic prosperity, and social cohesion.
A Quick but Bumpy Path Towards the Vaccine
In a world where people urgently need to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind the pandemic, 2021 will bring diverging news. The first good news is that a lot more new vaccines will be available in the upcoming six months to accompany the promising Pfizer-BioNTech. While vaccine production used to take decades, more than 320 projects are existent today with more than 60 vaccines in a clinical trial. All being well, the second good news is that vaccines should be available in ample quantities by the end of 2021 to effectively slow down the spread of the virus. Although the virus will not abruptly disappear, it will certainly start to fade into the background.
Nonetheless, plenty of bad news is also on the agenda. Although several vaccines are being manufactured, their registration, development, and distribution in billions of doses will definitively be challenging. A shortage of medical glass and “cold chains” required to maintain certain vaccines may result in delays. This could result in fights between and within countries over who should get them and when. Paradoxically, once the supply is sufficient, the issue will turn to rejection by anti-vaxxers and skeptics concerned about rushed certification. Whilst polls have found that approximately a fifth of people across the world would refuse a vaccine when offered, the hope is that policymakers will be able to convince people to get one once a vaccine is successful.
An Uncertain Economic Recovery
Over the past few decades, economic growth has never been that unpredictable. This uncertainty does not solely lie in the fact that the future of the global economy depends on how fast the pandemic spreads and the vaccine rolls out. It also depends on the permanent damages caused by the plague, as it has slowed down the economy, closed down some businesses, and left workers unemployed. However, the actual consequences have been overshadowed by unprecedented emergency state intervention to bail out firms and support employees, and it is only after that support is withdrawn that the veil will be lifted and the gap between strong and weak firms will be widened.
Additionally, developing countries have not yet confronted the severe crisis that seemed inevitable at the start of the pandemic. Consequently, they have dealt with unconventional monetary and fiscal policies similar to those used by rich countries. It is, however, still unclear how long developing countries will be able to replicate the developed countries’ economic policy model, even at the heart of advantageous global conditions. So much like epidemiologists had to understand the outbreak as it spread, economists must assess the economic toll on the fly.
A Democratic World Power
The United States was wracked by a series of scandals and disasters in 2020, including millions of deaths from the pandemic, an increase in employees’ layoffs, racial tensions depicted in the Black Lives Matter protests, and Trump’s unwillingness to accept the election outcome, and many of these issues will remain in 2021. However, while newly elected President Joe Biden will take several action-steps including canceling America’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization, reintegrating the Paris climate agreement, and returning the protection for illegal immigrant children, he will be unable to pass quite any of the economic, health, and climate policies that he pledged.
In international affairs, Biden’s government will mark a drastic difference in style from its predecessor: Biden will restore the US leadership to the global efforts to tackle climate change, Russia’s brutality, and Iran’s nuclear program, but will preserve the opposition towards China. If Biden’s administration can make a COVID-19 vaccine quickly and widely available, the economy will start to recover, and his popularity will increase. Otherwise, the optimism stirred by the end of Trump’s mandate will eventually dissipate, benefiting the former president.
More US – China Tensions
Over the past 4 years, Chinese officials have complained that President Trump is an erratic dictator led by selfish interests. On the other hand, Democrats seek a more ordered and less aggressive rivalry with China. A cautious China will continue to alleviate tensions with no expectations about a complete re-establishment of relations similar to those before 2016.
While Biden has always endorsed free trade agreements, he now leads a Democratic Party more dubious than ever of globalization and would not rush into such alliances. Besides, he endorses Trump in the need for reciprocity in trades with China and about getting back industrial production to America with policies and ‘Buy America’ laws to boost domestic companies.
In foundational technologies of the future, Biden will call the US to maintain supremacy over China in regard to artificial intelligence and computing with the promise of substantial investment in scientific research while applications like TikTok, a Chinese platform mostly used by teenagers, would be less of a concern. Biden would welcome more Chinese students to American universities than did Trump, which would be a big plus for Chinese officials trying to get young scholars to China.
Finally, Biden will seek China’s support in approaching global problems mocked or individually tackled by Trump, such as climate change and COVID-19 treatments. He might as well get assistance from China to revive the nuclear deal that Barack Obama signed with Iran before Trump rejected it. In all cases, Biden will need allies on his side as he stands against China.