Opinion Policy Analysis by Annabelle Ghanem and Tala Karkanawi, Staff Writers

October 6th, 2020

Oman does not recognize israel as a state, yet. The nation remains in line with the Arab League’s position when it comes to israel, and took part in the boycott of israel during most of the 20th century. However, 2020 has not been short on surprisses. We have seen events occurring this year that would have never crossed our minds, for their possibilities seemed too non-realistic to occur. Yet, two gulf states have stated their official and diplomatic alliance with israel, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, a shocking turn of events in the Arab israeli conflict, and an added milestone to this whirlpool of a year. Now a third state is being reported to join these two gulf states, with Oman announcing the possibility of  fully normalising its relations with israel,. making it the 5th country in the Arab region, following Egypt, Jordan, UAE and Bahrain, to create ties with their Jewish neighbours.

 The Sultanate of Oman was appreciative of the peace deal that happened with Bahrain and israel, indicating that the possibility of pursuing such relations themselves was not such a farfetched idea. Sultan Qaboos played an essential role in paving a diplomatic street with Israel for his successor, Sultan Haitham, to accomplish.  After the peace agreement (Abraham records) were completed between UAE and israel, Pompeo paid a visit to Sultan Haitham bin Tariq in Muscat.Pompeo stated that during his meeting with Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, he emphasized the importance “of building unity within the Gulf Cooperation Council and building on the momentum to advance regional peace and prosperity.”

The Gulf figure believed that the Iranian reaction to Muscat welcoming talks with Netanyahu, revealed the truth about the position of the “Islamic Republic” that are premised on escalation while at the same time protecting its interests. He said, in this regard, that Iran’s silence about Oman confirmed its inability to respond to any Omani move in any direction. This same inability also characterises its agents and proxies in the region. Lebanese Hezbollah, for example, has adhered to Iran’s stance and been relatively mute in regard to the Sultanate.

It really puts the entire situation under a big question mark; why are the gulf states all suddenly publicly normalizing relations and forming peace treaties with israel? With careful analysis and evidence, one can corelate the sudden news headlines back to one common explanation, Iran and the Western mission against the nation. The main item on their agenda became pretty simple, how can we contain Iran?

The Iranian government did not take the news lightly on both the UAE and Bahrain. Iranian President Rouhani threatened that “if the agreement leads to expanded Israeli influence in the region, things will change and they will be dealt with in a different manner.” Chief of Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff, Major General Mohammad Baqeri mentioned that “if anything happens in the Persian Gulf and the national security of  Islamic Republic of Iran is endangered—even slightly—we will blame the UAE, and will not tolerate it.”

Saudi Arabia, a key player in the Middle Eastern region, has declared Iran an enemy for a long time now, with the nation fearing a possible hidden agenda of Iran wanting to restore its Persian empire. This threat and multiple other reasons led Saudi Arabia’s government and multiple Arab countries to pursue an alliance with Iran.  Saudi top diplomat announced that Tehran aspires to restore the Persian Empire, and is using methods of death and destruction to try and attain their goal. “We made it clear to everybody that Iran is a force for instability, Iran is a force for chaos, Iran is a force for death and destruction, that Iran’s policies have fueled sectarianism in the Middle East, that Iran’s desire to restore what they call the Persian empire means dominating countries in the Middle East and expanding in the Middle East and that those policies are not acceptable, that Iran’s support for terrorism cannot stand. That is why Iran is designated as the number one sponsor of terrorism in the world. We believe that any dealings with Iran or any proximity with Iran will have very negative consequences,” said al-Jubeir.

The emerging alliances that are occurring can be seen as the sudden loss of Iran’s strong political influence within the region. The regional balance of power has been completely altered, with more and more nations siding with the Western opposition to Iran, with countries Morocco and Sudan said to be following suit. The ongoing disputes between Iran and the region can also be seen as a religious power shift, dramatically influencing the Sunni-Shi’ite dispute that has been going on for years now.  Tehran’s policy when it comes to the Palestinians and the israelies have been the source of political unrest for years now, with threats and provocative statements towards israel being utilized, reasoning that it is working against its own national interests.  

Although Iran claims itself as the defender and supporter of the Palestinian cause, the state's decision making and choices within the realm of international affairs allow us to look further into the foreign policy intentions of Iran’s role in the Middle East. In this light, it is significant to recall that the nation aligns itself with China and India, in which both have recorded discrimination against Islamic minorities within their borders. 

The new shift in power could lead Iran to improve their relations with Turkey. Erdogan responded angrily to the peace deals happening, and even threatened to end diplomatic ties with the UAE as well as Bahrain. Saudi Arabia already has poor relations with Turkey ever since the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, which increases the possibility of Iran and Turkey seeking an alliance with one another. Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia has described Turkey as a member of “contemporary triangle of evil” alongside Iran. 

The speaker of the Lebanese parliament Nabih Berri alongside with the israeli government have decided on the framework for prospective negotiations in regard to their maritime borders. Lebanon and israel have been in conflict since 1948, with several wars emerging since. Thus, this announcement came at a surprising time considering not only Lebanon’s ongoing tensions with the Zionist entity, but more so the current national crises and affairs in Lebanon.

This came up only a week after 2 Arab countries had signed peace agreements with Israel.

The negotiations that are going to occur between Lebanon and the israeli government, are done in hopes of instilling a sense of calmness within the israeli and the Lebanese border, and are anticipated to finalize solutions with regards to the distribution of the maritime borders between both countries. This undoubtedly has deep roots in the Blocks and possible exploration for oil, as well as the maritime transportation between Israel and Cyprus.

However, this puts Iran and its ally Hezbollah, in a weakened situation arguably. The First Lady of Lebanon also mentioned in an interview how forming peace between their neighbour israel could become a possibility if a solution with the Palestinians would be established in the process. This sends a direct message to Iran from the gulf and the Arab region that the so called Persian empire no longer has any business beyond our history books, while simultaneously weakening their position in the region. Netanyahu delivered a speech in the United Nation’s General Assembly last week saying ‘I say to the people of Lebanon, israel means you no harm, but Iran does.’

Iran’s possible threat in the Middle East has increased the possibility of an alliance with not only israel, but the western coalition aiming to freeze Iran out of the political scene.

Thus, it is without a doubt that the current events within the Middle East are part of a much greater plan for our world. From the timing to the first country of 2020 initiating peace talks with israel, these political details play a role in the monopolization of one of the west’s, and now the Middle East’s, significant enemies. What could this mean for the Middle East? For Iran? For the world? We might not have concrete answers at the moment, but we are certain that time will tell, and 2020 will not leave us with a cliff-hanger this time.