January 5th and the impact it has on the next US government
Opinion Analysis by Albert Geokgeuzian, Staff Writer
December 8th, 2020
The runoff elections are where the entirety of US politics will be focusing on for the next few weeks, these 2 races will determine just how much President-elect Joe Biden will actually be able to accomplish.
Why are there Runoff elections?
The reason why the Nov. 3 elections need a runoff election is due to this Georgia law that says that a majority of the voters had to have chosen a candidate and since neither of the candidates from the 2 elections in Georgia broke the threshold of 50%, the race wasn’t called and a runoff election was scheduled.
These are important elections because they determine who holds the majority in the US senate, and in turn how much President-elect Joe Biden can actually pass from his agenda. The Democrats have 48 seats so far, including 2 independents who side with democrats while the Republicans have 50 seats. If Democrats win the 2 runoff elections, then VP-elect Kamala Harris would cast the tie breaking vote - assuming everyone votes in accordance to their part - and would be a huge for the democratic party who fell well below their expectations these elections.
Republicans are clinging to Donald Trump
At the time of this writing, Donald Trump garnered 74 million of the votes, while still falling way short of Biden’s 80 million votes, it sent a clear message to everyone; Donald Trump is not going away. Trump has huge influence over the entirety of the Republican party because of that huge base and that means that Republicans have to satisfy Trump if they are to receive his endorsement.
Prominent figures from the Republican party have seen the impact that Trump has on their own elections. Lindsey Graham is one such Republican, who spent much of 2020 asking for donations, because his opposition Jamie Harrison raised a record-breaking $109m for his campaign. All that was for naught, President Trump threw his weight behind Republican candidates and Graham (R) won by more than 10%. As he put it: “He [Trump] is the reason we’re gonna have a Senate majority, my race was overwhelming”.
Republicans are worried about a runoff election with Trump not being on the ballot due to concerns of lower voter turnout and the loss of a majority in the Senate. However, with Trump’s support, Republicans remain confident. Although Trump’s support isn't guaranteed, Trump has a tendency to help those who are loyal to him, and his current outcries over widespread voter fraud, which are baseless, has only shown that Republicans will bend to Trump’s will, especially after the amount of votes he amassed.
Republicans remain loyal to Trump who calls up his base to vote for them. As Trump continues to refuse the results of the election, even as Pennsylvania certified it’s election results dealing the Trump campaign another blow, Republicans have a decision to make; support the baseless claims of their party’s most influential individual or say enough is enough?
This kind of attitude might not change, especially given that the 2022 midterms sees 22 GOP seats up for election against only 12 Democratic seats. If no new leader emerges during these few months in the GOP, which there doesn't seem to be anyone willing to take on that mantle, then you can expect to see more of the same from the Republican party.
What does a red majority in the Senate mean?
In the likely event that the Democrats lose the 2 run off elections in Georgia and the Senate remains red, we can expect the same strategy that was used during Obama’s last 2 years in office, block everything, this ‘strategy’ dates back to 2010. The Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell (R), famously blocked President Obama from appointing a judge to the US Supreme Court during the final year of his presidency and he would have no problem blocking every piece of legislation that the Democrats put on the table now.
What does a democratic government mean for the US?
In the unlikely event that the Democrats win both Georgia runoffs, this would mean that democrats have an ultra slim majority in the Senate, with VP-elect Kamala Harris casting the tie breaking vote if everyone votes on party lines, so what does this all mean?
Plain and simple, Joe Biden will have a much easier path towards fulfilling his agenda with both House and Senate siding with him. Biden would need to act fast as well, given that there has been no unified US government for longer than 2 years since 1968. When a party gains a majority in both the Senate and the House, the voters take away that unity during the midterms.
Biden will want to act on environmental policies, police reforms, and healthcare among others, but the first action would most likely be a relief package to help with the pandemic and the economic crisis it has caused.
Biden has made it clear that controlling the pandemic will be his top priority and he has already started in gathering a panel of experts to assist him on public health. After the pandemic relief, Democrats will look to fundamentally change how voting and government work in the US, including voting rights expansion, limiting the influence of money in politics, strengthening ethics rules and possibly even end the Senate filibuster - the filibuster is a Senate mechanism that requires a supermajority (60/100) vote for a debate to end and a vote on a specific piece of legislation to begin - which has been a bipartisan tool to stall a piece of legislation being voted on.
Whatever happens in the Jan. 5 runoff elections, I predict that the 2022 midterms will most likely go the other direction. The next 2 years will either be extremely productive for the Democrats, or be a drawn-out Senate session where the President can only have a tangible impact on the US through executive actions.