Overpopulation debunked Part 2 - the science behind it all
Opinion Analysis by Roa Daher, Staff Writer
November 26th, 2020
In the last 220 years, the global population has grown from 1 billion to 7.8 billion, causing a lot of concern about the Earth’s dwindling capacity to house any new occupants and whether there would be enough resources for everyone. To address why the idea of overpopulation is a myth, it is first important to understand that the population is not growing exponentially. In fact, population growth rates peaked in the 1970s at 2.1% and have been decreasing as environmental factors have affected fertility rates and voluntary childlessness has become more and more common for various reasons.
Before delving into the multiple scientific arguments that essentially debunk overpopulation, let’s take a look at the historical origins of the myth of overpopulation; since the inception of international development initiatives, they have been actively involved in reducing “overpopulation” by targeting the poor and those living in rural areas as the cause of the phenomenon. After World War II, because of attempts to improve the economy and standards of living, the idea that “overpopulation” was happening because of the poor gained traction; thus, in an effort to boost the postwar economy, international development agencies started campaigns aiming to reduce the number of marriages and family size in poor and rural areas. Therefore, the established link between overpopulation, due to reproduction, and poverty resulted in development policies that targeted the poor in the Global South with messages of birth control, “family planning”, and sterilisation.
Even though we had broken free of the Malthusian Trap, the ideas of British political economist Thomas Malthus continued to influence development and population experts alike. This produced neo-Malthusians in the 1920s who believed that unrestrained reproduction resulted in poverty which was an idea popularised by two groups: reformers linked to the birth control movement and population experts associated with eugenicists. In other words, the myth of overpopulation has deeply classist and racist roots that more often than not infringed on the bodies of women in the Global South who were most affected by the development policies and at times eugenic sterilisation laws that planned to address overpopulation by sterilising women without their consent. For instance, a United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) study reported a 34% rise in women’s sterilisation rates in Brazil from the 1960s to the 1990s and 79.8% of women in the rural area of Maranhão in northwestern Brazil were sterilised in line with the agenda of targeting “overpopulation”.
Even science cannot conclusively admit to the existence of overpopulation since there is no scientific consensus about the Earth’s carrying capacity, though a number that is commonly discussed is 10 billion. So even though there is no concrete or conclusive scientific evidence, the idea still remains very prevalent in popular discourse. As demonstrated earlier, the idea of overpopulation actually entered academic discourse in the 1920s, but it only made its way to popular discourse in 1968 with the publication of Paul Erlich’s “The Population Bomb” which is essentially an account of the author’s travels through Delhi in India. In the book, he describes a taxi ride by saying, “People visiting, arguing and screaming. People thrusting their hands through the taxi window begging… Since that night I’ve known the feel of overpopulation”. It is important to know that at the time, Delhi’s population was only 3 million people compared to New York’s 8 million; even the idea that popularised the idea of overpopulation in mainstream discussions had very racist and elitist undertones.
Going back to neo-Malthusians and their contributions to development: by blaming poverty on overpopulation, the real issue of inefficient resource allocation and distribution is conveniently overlooked. As suggested by this article titled “We Already Grow Enough Food for 10 Billion People… and Still Can’t End Hunger”, we are not facing a lack of resources. The fact that we grow food for 10 billion people but 821 million people suffered from hunger in 2018 according to the United Nations shows that the real issue that humanity is facing is a global maldistribution of resources that is fuelled by greed and inequality. As for drinkable or potable water, the water on Earth does not get depleted; rather, it changes quality, which may render it unsuitable for human consumption, or state as it cycles between gas, liquid, and state. Therefore, in addition to shifting the discourse from overpopulation to inefficient resource distribution, a spotlight must be placed on the importance of taking care of our planet and making sure it is hospitable to the entire population. After all, polluted water that is unsuitable for human consumption is the result of the careless dumping of toxic waste into bodies of water by corporations.
Instead of fixating on the number of individuals occupying the planet and the myth of overpopulation, which has very little scientific backing and rather unsavoury origins, that attention would be much better directed towards trying to minimise the impacts of climate change and care for the planet and the resources it provides us with. Rather than implementing policies that police women’s bodies and disregard womens’ reproductive wishes, states should focus on climate goals, achieving carbon neutrality, and investing in renewable energy.
Despite the fact that overpopulation has no scientific backing, many individuals remain very concerned about it and even base their decisions not to have children on their fear of overpopulation. On the other hand, climate change has decades’ worth of evidence and scientific consensus in the community, and yet no significant irrefutable action has been taken to adequately address climate change and attempt to prevent the impending doom associated with it. Many think the climate crisis is decades away, that they won’t live to see it, but in reality the climate crisis is happening right now in the Global South. We are living through it, but we have the power to turn it around before it takes a turn for the worst, and that we should.
Resources used
Hawkesworth, M. (2012). Political worlds of women: Activism, advocacy, and governance in the twenty-first century. Westview Press.
Purewal, N. (2001). New roots for rights: Women’s responses to population and development policies. In S. Rowbotham & S. Linkogle (Eds.) Women Resist Globalization: Mobilizing for Livelihood and Rights (pp. 113). Zed Press.