Putin’s Gambit - How Lukashenko’s madness strengthened Russia’s grip on Eastern Europe
Opinion Analysis by Joelle El Sheikh, Featured Writer and Francesco Pitzalis, Contributor
June 5th, 2021
On a Ryanair flight from Athens to Vilnius air traffic controllers notified the pilots of “a potential security threat on board”[1]. The plane was subsequently diverted to the Belarusian capital of Minsk and forced to land by a Mig-29 fighter jet. The jet was personally ordered by the President of Belarus, Aleksander Lukashenko, as part of a grand scheme to abduct dissident Belarusian journalist, Roman Protasevich and his girlfriend, Sofia Sapega. Protasevich is the creator of Nexta, a Telegram channel instrumental in organizing opposition rallies in the aftermath of a dubious election in August that gave Lukashenko victory.
Lukashenko’s outlandish conduct generated outrage from the international community. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken “strongly condemned” the Lukashenko regime whilst the European Union branded the move as an “attack on democracy… freedom of expression” and European sovereignty. According to a senior EU official, heads of state and government will consider a variety of possible punishments for Alexander Lukashenko and his government, including additional sanctions and a request for an investigation by the International Civil Aviation Organization[2]. As of May 24, the European Council demanded “the immediate release of Raman Protasevich and Sofia Sapega” and expressed an interest in adopting “further targeted economic sanctions” against the Lukashenko regime. The EU also pledged €3 Billion in funding to Belarus if Lukashenko were to step aside and transition Belarus to a democracy. Additionally, the EU has prevented European airlines from entering Belarusian airspace and banned arrivals of the Belarusian national carrier at European airports.
Protasevich's incarceration is part of a bigger crackdown on the independent press in Belarus. In 2020, Belarusian officials allegedly shut 50 independent websites and detained 477 journalists[3]. Such serious actions in light of Western incentive to stop repression of the press suggests a larger story. This can be deduced by inspecting Belarus’s relationship with its neighbor, Vladimir Putin’s Russia. The case of Protasevich can be compared with that of Alexei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader. Navalny fell extremely ill on a trip from Siberia to Moscow last August. He was later transferred to Germany, where a toxicology report revealed that he had been poisoned with Novichok, a Soviet-era nerve weapon. When he returned to Moscow last month, he was arrested for allegedly breaking a sentence for embezzlement.
Thus, it is not at all surprising that Lukashenko’s behavior was met with acquiescence if not approval from Moscow. Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov asserted that Belarus had taken an "absolutely reasonable approach”. Moreover, in a discussion between Putin and Lukashenko, the former claimed that international criticism towards Minsk was “an outburst of emotions”. Putin’s approval and justification of Lukashenko’s actions is pretexted by the Russian premier’s long-standing denigration of democratic institutions. On the flip side, Lukashenko’s bombast in cutting down dissidents changed the relationship between him and Putin immeasurably.
Contrary to the current state of affairs, relations between Belarus and Russia were not always so tight. Indeed, throughout their time at the top, Putin and Lukashenko’s personal relationship has been icy at best. In past instances, the latter would infuriate the former by playing the West against Russia in order for Minsk to capitalize. However, since Lukashenko’s intensified assault on Belarussian democracy and dissident journalists, his only option has been to look to Putin as his benefactor. The facts don’t lie – since suppressing the pro-democracy revolution and bearing the weight of subsequent Western sanctions, Lukashenko has received a bumper $1.5 billion loan from his Russian neighbors. Naturally these kind gestures do not come without due sacrifice. Lukashenko has since been forced to abandon his erstwhile pseudo non-alignment in favor of closer relations with Putin. The compromises may be great, with rumors of strengthened Russian military presence in Belarus and talk of a possible reunification between the two former Soviet states. In brief, Lukashenko’s aggressions forced Belarus’s alignment to dramatically swing towards Russia. Likewise, Lukashenko’s thirst for power has allowed Russia’s sphere of influence to extend westwards.
Unsurprisingly, the anti-democratic and hawkish elements of Russian society celebrate every time Lukashenko overreaches. For example, the Editor in Chief of RT, a Russian state-controlled media outlet, claimed that Lukashenko - “played it beautifully” following the outrageous hijacking. Alas, this is the goal of Putin and his ultra-nationalistic sycophants, a policy of brinkmanship. This policy aims to assert aggression after aggression against Western and democratic opposition. The policy not only includes a flagrant seal of approval for Lukashenko but multiple cyber hacks, the arrest of dissidents (including Navalny) and further encroachment in Ukraine and the arctic.
Why, you ask, does Russia continue to uphold this destructive policy? The answer is two-fold, ideology and economy. Since Putin’s incursion into Ukraine and formerly Georgia, Russian nationalism has been used as justification to deny post-soviet states’ rights to self-determination. For example, following the Russian annexation of Crimea, Putin justified the consensus-illegal procedure by referencing the Russian character and demographics of the peninsula. Likewise, when faced with a barrage of Western sanctions, Putin seeks further expansion in order to counterbalance the sanctions with more real estate. Such real estate includes Eastern Ukraine, a flashpoint of gas distribution and a key acquisition for the Russian economy.
Putin is also acutely aware that he is faced with a Western political elite marred by disunity and unwilling to impose sanctions with teeth. President Biden recently waived sanctions on Nord stream 2 pipeline. Nord stream 2 is an underwater pipeline transporting gas from the Russian arctic to Germany. The pipeline crucially bypasses Ukraine, expanding Russian influence in Europe whilst thwarting Ukrainian resistance to Russian aggression. Putin exploits Western disunity by shrouding his actions with dubious claims of plausible deniability. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Putin administration has consistently denied involvement in actions it sanctions or at least benefits from. Let us take the example of Russian cyber-attacks targeting Western infrastructure, such as the colonial pipeline or the Irish health service. Despite many promises, Russia has failed to crack down on hackers and benefits as a consequence by holding the West ransom. Thus, in light of Russian aggression and Western impotence, Putin and friends are still acting with impunity.
Alas, with Belarus quickly progressing towards Pariah state status, Putin remains Lukashenko’s only Sicilian defense. So far, the King has not sacrificed his pawn as he remains keen on expansion. Should repression escalate, and with further Western sanctions, Minsk's years of attempts to ease tensions with Brussels and Washington will be for naught. Yet, a fresh (self-)isolation of Belarus is precisely what Russia needs to achieve its geopolitical goal of maintaining Belarus in its circle and extracting more concessions from its frail government. This presents the EU with a conundrum it is all too familiar with: how can it help Belarus's efforts to maintain its independence without strengthening Lukashenko's authoritarian administration or enhancing Russia's assertiveness?[4] The most imperiled figure is of course Putin’s pawn. Further Western pressure could break Lukashenko. Alternatively, greater Russian tutelage could spell the end of Lukashenko’s influence and his country’s existence. For Europe’s last dictator, the next move could be checkmate.
[1] “Belarus Forces Down Plane to Seize Dissident; Europe Sees ‘State Hijacking’”, NY Times,https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/23/world/europe/ryanair-belarus.html
[2] “EU blasts Belarus for ‘hijack’ of airliner and arrest of activist”, POLITICO, https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-journalist-arrest-roman-protasevich-diverted-flight-minsk/
[3] “‘Belarusian journalists are unsafe and constantly under attack’”, Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/27/belarusian-journalists-are-unsafe-and-constantly-under-attack
[4] “UNDER PRESSURE: CAN BELARUS RESIST RUSSIAN COERCION?”, European Union Institute for Security Studies, 2020, https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/under-pressure-can-belarus-resist-russian-coercion