The United Kingdom is on a “one-way road to freedom”
Opinion Policy Analysis by Francesco Pitzalis, Staff Writer
February 26th, 2021
On the 22nd of February, Boris Johnson announced a cautious, step-wise approach to easing the UK’s lockdown. Removed from his typical undue optimism and satire; Johnson’s speech built on weeks of successful lockdown restrictions and a rapid vaccine roll out. One thing was clear, the PM intends to make this lockdown the last and emphatically claimed that the UK is on a “one-way road to freedom.”
The lockdown easing will unfold as a 4-staged process, spaced apart by (minimum) 5-week gaps. Step 1 begins on March 8th; with the reopening of schools, culminating in step 4; a lifting of all restrictions on the 21stof June. Boris Johnson caveated this “roadmap” by emphasising “data rather than dates.” In doing so, he provided his administration flexibility to slam the brakes on reopening and contain future outbreaks. Such caution is undoubtedly warranted, given the UK government’s proclivity to jump the gun. That said, the metrics indicate there is plenty of light at the end of the tunnel.
A national lockdown imposed in January slashed cases, deaths and hospital admissions to a significant degree. Of note, Deaths were cut by 93%; from a blood-curdling 1360 on the 19th of January to 93 on the 22ndof February. This has translated to a steep downward Covid-curve (see figure 1) that transformed Professor Chris Whitty’s “daily summary” from an experience of communal sorrow to communal fist-pumping (at least in my house). Of late, Whitty lauded the lockdown as the primary cause for the contraction of the outbreak.
Figure 1. Graph showing daily deaths of Covid-19 in the United Kingdom.
There is of course an elephant in the room. The UK vaccination rollout, which in a word, has been tremendous. As of the 23rd of February, at least 17.9 million people have received their first shot, the vast majority in vulnerable cohorts. The UK is also ahead of schedule; accelerating its target to immunise the entire adult population to the 31st of July. Thankfully, phase-4 clinical trial data has indicated that a single-shot of either the Pfizer or Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is having a “spectacular” effect on severe cases of the disease. A study by Public Health Scotland reported that the first dose of Pfizer and Oxford/AstraZeneca reduced hospital admissions by 85% and 94% respectively. This not only provides hope for effective curtailing of deaths but justifies the UK’s policy to extend the interval between vaccine doses.
So, things are looking up for the UK, but how did it get there? The answer is multifactorial. Firstly, the National Health Service (NHS) was able to mobilise very quickly under the strain of the pandemic. The socialised system enabled rapid recruitment of retired health professionals, procurement of volunteers and integration with dentists, pharmacists and paramedics. This not only allowed the NHS to take the brunt of the January peak but also administer vaccines at astonishing speed.
Of course, distribution of vaccine is only as good as vaccine supply. This was secured by shrewd British negotiations with Big pharma. An example can be seen in the UK’s dealings with AstraZeneca. Legal experts affiliated with politico elucidated how British contracts with AstraZeneca had more “teeth” than EU contracts. This in turn aided the development of a dedicated AstraZeneca supply chain for the UK and a robust mechanism to prevent and penalise violations in supply. The UK government is also a major stakeholder in the joint Oxford/AstraZeneca project; facilitating reliable communication between Scientists, government officials and supply chain coordinators. This resulted in a rapid distribution timeline for the UK, compared to delays for the EU.
A word now on Boris Johnson, who after months of dithering, seems to have his snow-ball head fully screwed on. His paradigm shift was simple, he stopped making unrealistic promises. He also underscored every optimistic statement with the caveat of “data not dates”. Even when faced with the usual bull-ring grilling from journalists, BoJo held firm, insisting he “won’t be buccaneering with people’s lives.” It was like he assumed the temperament of an empathetic masseuse or physiotherapist; gently massaging his injured athlete whilst promising Romanian deadlifts in due course.
Indeed, the speech was a masterpiece of cautious optimism; periodic under-promising complimented with enough political elasticity for insurance. This duality might be exactly what the UK needs. A cautious, step-wise approach is the only way to unlock the UK safely and prevent backtracking. However, with cases tumbling and vaccines being distributed at breakneck pace, Johnson needed to give the UK some hope. The pain of separation from our loved ones becomes twice as unbearable when it seems unending.
This article is dedicated to my wonderful mother, who risks her life every day in hospital for her vocation.