Chaos theory and the butterfly effect: an eco-political illustration?

Opinion analysis by Gaelle Nohra, Staff Writer

May 20th, 2020

Have you ever wondered what could have been different if Petar and Marija Princip never met? And so their son Gavrilo Princip, assassinator of the Crown Prince Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sophie on June 28th 1914, could have never made it to life? Would the four years escalating events of World War I never have occurred? 

While militarism and imperialism rank among key indirect reasons that were eventually going to induce a global warfare, the butterfly effect or the law of sensitive dependence, underlying principle in Chaos Theory, suggests a relatively different yet drastically diverging scenario.

It states that tiny disturbances in initial conditions and inputs for any given system are prone to create large variations in the final output. You’ve certainly came across the famous metaphor describing how a tornado in Texas can be prompted by a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil.

The butterfly effect also constitutes a relevant argument as to why daily weather forecasts fail to yield accurate results. Its presence in a dynamical system indicates how the latter’s components are anarchically and purposelessly moving. Chaos theory on the other hand, an interdisciplinary principle developed by Edward Norton Lorenz in the early 1960s, revolves around the recognition of patterns and interdependence even under apparently randomly-oriented systems. 

This analysis evaluates the extent to which the chaos theory, along with the butterfly effect, be ascribed to the events taking place on the Lebanese eco-political theatre, in addition to tracing the hidden order prevailing amidst the 2020 turmoil. This illustration will be particularly featured by a brief comparison between the reforms raised by the previous and current executive councils. As you may come to realize, the outlook on the recent occurrences is more or less optimistic yet doesn’t escape controversy.

A 2019th reform package upgrading to a 2020th plan

Following the October 17th  uprisings, the cabinet managed to release an economic reform package mainly consisting of a 50% reduction in officials’ salaries, a $3.3 billion injection from banks in order to reach a zero level deficit, privatization of the telecommunications sector along with other measures. Hariri’s package, a 72 hours product, was mostly made up of straightforward and quick measures in the sense that it adopted a problem-solving approach towards years of complications without really questioning the source of arising disruptions.

While it is true that some reforms, such as the privatization, was going to proceed with assistance from financial advisors, other measures related to reducing the fiscal deficit wasn’t targeting the framework of the banking sector, but rather a temporary engagement. With Diab’s cabinet taking office in recent January and the Lebanese community witnessing culminating economic tragedies, which were further exacerbated with the COVID-19 outbreak, the government approved a 5 years reform plan targeting the restoration of confidence and the provision of a long-run sustainable growth track.

Diab’s plan bears more resemblance to a road map, envisioning alteration in the entire fiscal and governmental order. The plan seeking reintegration inside the international market, tax-base broadening as well as auditing BDL’s operations for the past 5 years, is more capable of create behavioral adjustments paving the way for a sustainable economic growth path.

The butterfly effect: not a Lebanese constituent, or at least not yet.

That said, the potential divergence existing between the strategies drafted by the two different councils is a reason why the butterfly effect might carry relevance in the Lebanese situation. However, the appropriateness of this case is utterly undermined with the presence of two factors: the first relates to the arguable reason that led the previous PM to align with the protesters’ appeal for resignation and whether or not it was large enough. Whereas the second concerns the failure probability of the current cabinet’s plan.

For the butterfly effect to hold, large variations in the final output should be due to minor changes in initial conditions and this is why our case will pertain only if Hariri’s resignation was the product of a negligible reason – small inputs – and Diab’s plan will excel in bringing the country to the most prosperous stage it ever witnessed.

Obviously this isn’t the case.

While many people developed conspiracy theories regarding Hariri’s decision on October 29th, resignation didn’t seem an option before the revolution spark. Was this latter small enough? You name it. As for the current cabinet’s roadmap and although it demonstrates a promising track, its success cannot be meticulously validated anytime in the short run. 

Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri has resigned "in response to protesters' demands", EuroNews 2019

A hidden order vindicated by COVID-19?

The purpose of rejecting the pertinence of the butterfly effect in Lebanon’s context is simply to state that the current happenings inside our community aren’t as chaotic as they exhibit, maybe they are part of a disguised order on the march and the covid-19 journey stands a supportive argument.

Although it is unfair to assume the previous cabinet wouldn’t have coped as efficiently as the current one and taking into view the possibility of an upcoming second wave, the performance of the current cabinet remains a central reason why social inconveniences and death rates were shattered to the minimum possible in previous months.

Now with an ongoing inflation, liquidity shortage and extreme poverty on the rise, it is inconceivable to neglect the criticality of this stage which we are effortlessly led to perceive as anarchic. Yet, a macro scene is in the making and it can’t be asserted where we stand on the map. Economic recoveries barely run without inflicting short term recessions and realistically speaking, we might not survive to see our country thrive but we’re certainly contributing in making this envisioned phase, a possible episode on the Lebanese timeline.