Emigration should not be the only option on the survival horizons
Opinion Analysis by Dina Richani, Staff Writer
August 25th, 2020
Lost innocent souls, destroyed homes and shops, inflated prices, unattached government, angered and hopeless people.
On October 17th, thousands took down to the streets to fight for a civil state that goes beyond sectarianism and corruption. Thousands of students refused to attend university and schools in hope of building a new nation. However, now, with poverty expected to trap 55% of the population, only a few remain on the ground. The hope that once pushed the people forward is now slowly diminishing.
How did the once fully occupied demonstration arenas now lose their people?
“I would go down on a daily basis from the early morning knowing that the youth is a turning point but now, the country is for them, the government isn’t for the people, it is for itself” says Taleen El Gharib, a 20 year old Lebanese student.
In July 2019, the Lebanese Lira versus the USD gradually began to rise and reached 2,000. At the time, everyone took down to the streets and blocked roads. Gradually it increased to 2,200 and 2,500 to 3,000 and then to 3,800, in April 2020. Today the price of 1 USD exceeds 7,000. Lebanese Liras and everyone remains neutral. Many Lebanese people think the pandemic is what is stopping them from protesting, however a huge faction still remains at restaurants, pubs and outings.
On top of that, on August 8th when people took down to Downtown Beirut to mourn over the disastrous explosion, people battled unending tear gas and rubber bullets flying everywhere. The drive that people once held is slowly losing its forte with many planning to leave the country soon enough. For more than a century and a half, Lebanon has sent inhabitants abroad to find better opportunities and standards of living.
But how many more waves of migration?
Historians differentiate between many waves of migration in the past 150 years. The first one occurred as a consequence of the expanding British and French capitalist markets. The Christian community mostly left the country with the help of the Maronite Catholic Church to study in Rome and come back and serve as clergy. Moreover, another small group also emigrated to Egypt and the main centers for trade between Europe and the Middle East.
The second wave came after the liberation of peasants with the discomfort and dilemma of high land prices. Also, emigration came as an expense of the collapse of the silk industry where Lebanon was later competing with artificial fabrics internationally. Several historians assert that on top of that, the rise of a middle class, and the leeway out of joining the Ottoman army caused many Christians to emigrate. In the first two waves, Lebanese people mostly relied on migrating to two regions, mostly the United States, and South America, where Brazil and Argentina had concentrated Lebanese communities.
Despite the decrease of migration in 1929 with the world economy on its feet, after 1946 and up until April 1975, emigration started increasing. Between 1945 and 1960, the number of emigrants averaged 3,000 Lebanese individuals annually. However, throughout 1970 and 1975, there was an increase of 10,000 annually.
The fourth wave of migration from 1975 to 1989 which is distinguishable from any of the other waves, is the result of the blood-soaked Civil War. This led several Lebanese people to America but Canada and Australia became attractive focal points. In spite of that, the largest faction became the growing number of emigrants to the Gulf countries, mainly to find managerial and technical positions along with the rise of revenues in the oil industry. Throughout those years, 40% of the total population in Lebanon, almost 990,000 had left. In addition, the rate of
unemployment rose to 21% by the year 1985, and the minimum monthly salary declined from US$280 at the end of 1983 to US$27 in 1987, within the span of two years.
Up until today, and now more than ever, the Lebanese economic model remains highly fragile if not completely shattered. Lebanon’s economy greatly depends on foreign investments and on the diaspora’s remittances. Despite the industrial and agricultural sectors remaining in a deadlock for a while now and consistently exacerbating social inequalities, now is the time where we push aside any willing migrating wave and focus on Lebanon’s very own potential sectors.
It is evident however that the economically and “politically” hegemonic ruling parties in Lebanon have stood in the way of developing Lebanese agrarian and industrial sectors. Alternatively, it focused on other sectors, centering on tourism, trade, banking and finance. This likelihood has been fortified since 1990 due to the allegiance of our governments to neo-liberal economic policies, causing a narrow labor market identified by low pay.
In general this produced an absolute disruption of economic activities, and drastic feelings of insecurity. Consequently, a huge fraction of people from all Lebanese communities and from various economic backgrounds emigrated. This is manifested in the makeup of immigrants who arrived in many countries including Australia, Canada, USA, France, Germany and the Gulf States.
As many people took down the streets praising for change back in October and occasionally up till this day, Lebanese citizens should remain in Lebanon even though hardships are strong and lives are at risk. This is a chance for the people here to take advantage of the youth labour underutilization which is highly evident between people aged 15 to 24 years old who suffer from an unemployment rate of 23.3 per cent. To topple this, it is even higher amongst university graduates estimated to be 35.7 per cent up till 2019 only. In that sense, this valuable resource of a potential workforce can orient themselves to contribute to Lebanon’s own sectors. According to the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), only 5 percent of growth is harvested locally and 80 percent of food needs are imported. This situation does not have to be permanent as Lebanon’s agricultural sector has the potential to be modernized and improved, as shown by some attempts on the level of educational institutions and private sector operators.
Salim Hassan Hashi wrote in 1908 that the causes of emigration were “to seek riches...in the farthest reaches of the inhabited world.” To seek riches nowadays is by remaining still and fighting for making up a country. In return this would be the fortune any Lebanese is looking for. Eventually, migrating will only lead to a major loss of human capital.
If all skilled workers evacuate, who will be there to repair Lebanon and gain it back from the dirty hands in power?
For long, Lebanese have made the world their home. Now, Lebanon must be our number one concern and home despite it all. If change is what we strive for and what we have praised for since October 17th, 2019, we need to be ready to overcome and live through challenges we have not foreseen before.