Lebanon 2022 elections: how to prepare? - A guide to having fruitful elections as a first step towards recovery

Analysis by Zeina Dagher, Staff Writer

April 1st, 2021

There is no denying that ever since the start of the Lebanese eco-political crisis in October of 2019, and even more since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, students, academics, professors, researchers, activists, and many more have taken to social media platforms to express opinions or share valuable knowledge, through articles, online meetings, round tables, etc… Considering that the parliamentary elections – Lebanon’s saving grace – will be taking place in a little over a year, this generalized spread of information seems like a fantastic way to ensure voter education. However, is it really reaching those who need it most? Today more than ever, it’s hard to imagine that a poor Lebanese citizen, who can barely afford to put food on the table, will show interest in or have time to read academic articles pinpointing the alleged “root of the problem”. Nor will this citizen be able to resist a $20 bill bribe in exchange for a vote. That person may not even show interest in voting, whereby politics are seen as a remote concern compared to bodily needs like food and rest for some. But voter education, among other things, is of utmost importance in our particular context: Lebanon cannot afford another failed election.

So, the questions are: how do we ensure the best voting conditions to be able to elect a truly reformed parliament? How do we make sure that the dreadful experience of the 2018 elections (the only ones that had taken place since 2009) doesn’t happen again? And what is the civil society’s role, as well as ours, in paving the way for these successful elections? This article will try to explicitly answer all of these questions, by tackling a wide variety of topics: from voter turnout, protection from fraud, to education, among other things.

Let’s start by analyzing the voter turnout. According to a report by the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies (LCPS), the 2018 parliamentary elections saw a sizable decrease of voter turnout, with 49.7% of registered voters casting a ballot compared to 54% in 2009. This came as a surprise, as many had predicted that the changes in the electoral law (switching from majoritarian to proportional representation) and the introduction of the diaspora vote would increase turnout. Why were these numbers so low? The report mentions 3 key answers.

First, the big delay between elections (9 years) caused many voters to be first-timers (28% of eligible voters), and these people generally have a lower propensity to vote. Second, Sunni and Alawite voting significantly dropped, most probably because they wished to express discontent with the passivity of the Future Movement, and particularly its alliance with President Michel Aoun who supports Hezbollah. Third, the adoption of proportional representation only led to an increase in turnout in few non-competitive districts, while most of the more competitive ones showed a bigger drop in participation. 

However, these are not the only reasons behind low voter turnout in 2018. In fact, Lebanon is part of a larger pattern of low political participation in the Middle East and more generally, in the Arab world. Because of the lack of political diversity in elections, and a general trend of normalized fraud, eligible citizens rarely ever feel represented by the candidates, and if they do, they don’t believe their vote will make a difference, whilst being overpowered by fraud. For example, Egypt’s current President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was elected in 2014 with an abnormally astounding 95.3% of votes, while voter turnout was of merely 48%. 

Yet, many would argue that the economic crisis, the port explosion, and the general anger towards the political class is enough to mobilize anyone. Sadly, it is not: the correlation between economic adversity and turnout rates is ambiguous. Some studies suggest that voters will increasingly express their discontent at the polls, while others suggest the opposite. When comparing our particular case to that of the Arab world, we can see that even though the impact of the 2011 Arab spring was still felt years later, voter turnout did not increase as a result of all of that. Moreover, citizens in Lebanon must go to their place of birth to vote. Aside from the fact that this is an inconvenience by itself, there are quite a few rural areas where parties have great control and influence. Also, if gas prices keep escalating, voting will become extremely pricey, and many people will have to pass on this opportunity involuntarily.  

So, what can be done to increase turnout?

As a start, there are already some positive aspects to the Lebanese elections that don’t need to be changed; for instance, the fact that elections usually take place on a Sunday so that people don’t miss work. Also, eligible citizens are automatically registered as voters, and when the time for elections comes, people who already voted are marked with non-fading purple ink to differentiate them from those who haven’t yet. Nonetheless, we can take a look at the US elections in order to enlarge our turnout even further. In the US, it is possible for voters to cast their votes early, thus reducing waiting lines at polling stations. Also, there are non-partisan campaigns like “Get Out The Vote”, solely done in order to encourage people to vote. These campaigns effectively influence behaviors by implementing small interventions, such as calling people to ask them about their voting plans, or encouraging them to come up with one, sending out reminders for elections, invitations to local reunions, door-to-door canvassing, mobile apps…  If such a campaign were to be implemented in Lebanon, it could also present free non-partisan services, like transporting people to and from their polling stations, giving out food, etc… 

Nevertheless, the main element that would highly encourage the Lebanese population to vote more than ever before, is a guarantee that there would be little to no fraud, and that their voices would actually be heard. In the 2018 elections, the Lebanese Association for Democratic Elections (LADE) officially recorded over 7000 violations. Fights broke out at polling stations, a candidate had been stripped away from winning because of cheating, some ballots arrived late and others were moved around, political parties violated the electoral media blackout and their volunteers coerced and intimidated voters at polling stations, whereby a number of videos where political parties were handing out cash to voters were circulating. Indeed, the role of vote buying in the 2018 elections as a mobilization tool is not to be underestimated. 

So, what’s to be done about enforcing more security and transparency during the next election? The Lebanese Transparency Association (LTA) and the local chapter of Transparency International, proposed a few urgent electoral reforms: it called on the government of Lebanon to significantly improve transparency around campaign financing and regulations, including communicating about relevant spending ceilings for each district, publishing financial reports and account information from candidates running for office and making the voting results from every polling station publicly available. It also called on it to prohibit incumbent government ministers from running for future parliamentary elections. Moreover, there should be heightened security of different degrees at polling stations to ensure a safe and neutral voting space, and most importantly, no violations should be recorded. Ultimately, the parliament should be pressured into drafting laws and the judiciary should be pressured into applying them, and these would penalize parties and candidates who resort to illegal activities to mobilize voters. If the political climate is heavy enough so that none of these internal measures are taken or even show results, the civil society could always call for international observers to monitor elections on the field, just like the Venezuelans who called for EU election observers for their parliamentary elections last December.

It is important to remember that all that’s been said up until now is of no use to the Lebanese people if we end up with an equally bad or slightly changed parliament – if voters don’t vote for the right people, considering that new and competent candidates are presenting themselves as alternatives for the current ruling political class. Therefore, it is crucial to implement voter and civic education. Some may argue that the recent student elections, and the numerous independent candidate wins, are reason enough to guarantee that people won’t vote for those who impoverished them anymore. While it is true that these elections denoted a shift in reasoning, they are not enough. Nadim El Kak, a researcher at the LCPS and a sociology graduate from the American University of Beirut who won a seat at the recent elections, told Al Jazeera: “We don’t expect the same kind of radical shift at the Parliament. Definitely independents will do better than before, but it’s a battlefield that is still somewhat out of our reach due to the electoral system and the scale of pressure involved.” By “pressure”, he means the massive resources that the parties utilize and invest in media and advertisement campaigns in order to spread their sectarian propaganda, as well as organizing protests and events and promising jobs and patronage, buying votes, etc… Thus, it is naturally much harder for independents to massively overrule the parliament, especially since they are not receiving enough recognition, which comes hand in hand with people’s uneasiness towards strangers.

This is why the UN reminds us that “voter and civic education are even more critical in post-conflict countries, where political situations may be volatile and where elections may have an unprecedented impact on the countries’ future.” Therefore, voter education campaigns should start early and continue throughout the elections in order to keep on informing people about all the formalities of voting. Although such campaigns should usually be done by the government, nothing restricts the private media, political parties, and non-governmental and international organizations from taking part and indulging in their own ones. In fact, during the 2002 presidential elections in Kenya, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) worked on a campaign like this, which resulted in the freest and fairest elections the country had had up until that point. As for civic education, it should focus on democracy, equality, and the human rights of citizens, and in Lebanon’s case, it should point out the ruling class’ wrongdoings to keep voters from electing them again. Such education exists on most social media platforms, but sometimes doesn’t reach those who need it. Therefore, targeted campaigns are needed here, and since our government is too corrupt to sponsor neutral and accurate information campaigns, it’s the civil society, private media outlets, and individuals who have to carry out this mission. 

In the end, it is clear that there are many ways to ensure a great voting experience and topple the political ruling class in 2022. However, two problems present themselves. The first one is that people are still asking themselves whether or not there will be elections in 2022. This should be a matter that is out-of-question, as it is clear that the people expressed long ago their disapproval of the current parliament. Therefore, we shouldn’t wait for it to give us the green light to start working for the elections: work should start now. The second problem is that until now, the number of independent people that the public is familiar with and could vote for is very small, and many of those won’t even be election candidates.

Thus, it is crucial that competent people that are suited for the parliament start coming forward with their candidatures and a recovery plan, otherwise people who want change won’t be represented by any candidate, and we’ll have to face the 2018 scenario all over again.