From Down to (DAWN) - Part 2
Opinion Analysis by Rhea Haddad, Staff Writer
January 12th, 2021
As the years go by, they undoubtedly do not resemble each other. Would the consequences of the turmoil witnessed in 2020 be a springboard to jump into a new and better world or would they be the continuation of the crazy spin of the planet that shelters us?
The key to this question lies in the way we overcome the economic, health, and social challenges *.
A Premiere for Businesses
In front of the coronavirus pandemic, the lion’s share of companies across sectors adapted to the new challenges with outstanding agility. Digitization took more place in everyday life, and e-commerce, e-learning, online gaming, food delivery, and telemedicine have been on the rise. Yet, while this outburst of energy and innovation is certainly astonishing, the harsh truth is that it is also unsustainable.
As the economic recovery is still uncertain, it is in the hands of corporate executives to take the right measures to ensure their companies’ survival. In essence, they must tackle three global dilemmas.
The first impasse firms will face is where they should manufacture their products. Since they are often on the frontier of political conflicts over tariffs, technology, and social injustice, they have become puppets trapped in broader geopolitical fights.
The second one is where consumers will want to buy these products. The growth of online shopping has certainly uplifted online giants like Amazon but has also resulted in other smaller beneficiaries. With solid infrastructure but underdeveloped online platforms, the shift to internet shopping could be long-lasting in the US and the UK. However, this scenario is very different in other regions with weaker infrastructures that will return to traditional purchasing and sale.
The third issue is where employees should work. Remote working imposed by the pandemic has proved to be a double-sided sword: while some may enjoy work from the comfort of their homes and may not want to return to their offices, others may suffer from issues like bad virtual communication or lack of socialization, or tire of staring at screens in cramped houses.
As such, executives should plan a hybrid environment with a combination of telework and smaller headquarters. This would require a more flexible strategy and more importance to the overall well-being of employees.
A Faster Tech Acceleration
The current technological trends have been accelerated by the pandemic: shopping increasingly shifted online; money transfers slowly turned digital; e-learning became more widespread; and most people worked from their homes. Today, people in different countries have been unexpectedly propelled into a future where all of these are converted into daily habits.
In 2021, the planet will not return to its pre-pandemic condition. A lot of shops have closed; the older generation is enjoying the thrill of online shopping; and remote workers are not hurrying to get back to commuting five days a week. However, not all of the lockdown customs of 2020 will remain. In the educational sector, students and teachers are excited to return to physical classrooms. Employees miss socializing in the office. Consequently, some practices will last, but not all of them, and the outcome will be right in the middle.
Some companies will grow bigger, others will lose, and some will completely collapse. But yet again, there is a silver lining as these developments generate new opportunities for innovation. Large and small firms are now developing new strategies to enhance the remote working experience, promote, different forms of contactless and appointment-based services, and provide aspects of social interactions.
The pandemic has moved the planet towards a somewhat different future and there is no eventual return to the pre-pandemic world.
A Less Footloose World
One sure thing is that travel will be easier in 2021 than in 2020. More planes are going to take off and land, more nations will welcome tourists, and there will be fewer constraints. However, travel will be determined by three big shifts. First, the frequency and duration will be an important criterion to consider. Short cross-border trips will still be complex as most countries will impose two-week quarantines on travelers, turning a three-day trip into a four-week nightmare.
The second change will thus be the distance. National tourism is expected to boom in 2021. Popular tourism destinations are seeking to make up for the shortfall of foreign travelers by promoting domestic tourism as overseas travel will be a hassle in different ways.
The third change will be in the essence of the trip. As journeys get fewer and longer, remote workers will enjoy an appealing alternative to work from a nicer and farther place than home and with fewer travel restrictions. Many of these adjustments will continue even after the vaccine has been broadly administered. Travelers will get accustomed to longer and more versatile journeys and a mix of work and leisure.
The tourism sector will gradually recover to its 2019 standards but will look completely new: holidays will be fewer, longer, and closer to home, but at least they will happen.
An Incentive for Climate Change
Every year since 1996, tens of thousands of climate policymakers unite for the UN’s annual climate summits. The primary goal of the conferences is to motivate the 189 countries included in the 2015 Paris Agreement to strengthen their efforts to reduce their national emissions.
From a worldwide climate policy standpoint, 2021 has already begun on December 12th, 2020, the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreement that was marked by a co-hosted summit by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
On the eve of the conference, the European Union agreed to reduce its greenhouse-gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 and China announced that it would reduce its carbon emissions to net-zero before 2060. Moreover, the way countries will set out their strategies to respond to the upcoming impacts of global warming at a summit at the end of January and how they coordinate their economic recovery plans from the pandemic is equally important. Researchers found that global carbon emissions dropped by 7% due to the coronavirus-induced lockdowns. Whether or not emissions rebound as they did after the 2008 global financial crisis depends on how countries plan to boost its economy.
Some countries have announced plans to gradually stop subsidies for fossil energy and have linked climate-related conditions to bailout funds that would support the shift towards a greener economy. Nonetheless, countries like China and India have included in their recovery plans incentives for future coal-powered plants which are completely incompatible with the Paris goals.
To Sum Up:
Considering the interplay between a pandemic, an economic recession, and turbulent geopolitics, 2021 promises to be particularly uncertain.
At the dawn of a new year, we could expect the revelation of a bright day, or on the contrary, several few darks hours.
So, let the dice fly high, and may the odds be in your favor.