It Hurts to Say Goodbye: Bibi at the End
Op-Ed by Naif Al-Rogi, Staff Writer
January 12th, 2021
It is a hard thing to imagine the region without Benyamin Netanyahu; in the past decade he has outlasted neighboring presidents-for-life as Prime Minister of israel, with his Likud party depending on a series of uneasy coalitions to secure power for most of that time. Indeed, for as long as I have been politically conscious (context: the author is 21 years old), ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu has been a fixture on the scene. Even as israel heads to its fourth elections in two years, the sense that Bibi is all there is, that there cannot possibly be an alternative, remains pervasive.
Despite corruption probes, a wave of protests, and his own splintering party, this shroud of inevitability remains virtually unmoved. I am put in mind of a curious epithet passionate Likudniks have bestowed upon him: The Wizard of Balfour Street (the PM’s residence, cf. Downing Street). Bibi’s magic, however, is nothing too remarkable. He is in many ways the consummate politician; a conniving, calculating cynic without scruples practicing the dark arts of realpolitik. He is also an infamous miser, which is unfortunate in view of certain Jewish stereotypes. His voters know this all too well, and while it certainly appeals to at least some of them, most of them only as much as shrug.
Reams and reams can and have been written on Netanyahu, trying to account for his magic. For those interested, Anshel Pfeffer’s Bibi: The Turbulent Life and Times of Benjamin Netanyahu is essential reading. Not looking to pace through the previous ten years, this piece will rather be concerned with what the current crisis in israeli politics means for the greater region. “All politics is local”, runs the old adage. This as true in israel as it would be in Suriname. Before the hat-trick election last year, Netanyahu shocked the world by committing to the annexation of illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank. This was a rapid departure for Bibi, who despite what many internationally might think, is still seen as too dovish by the israeli hard-right. At any rate, annexation did not happen (yet), but the hanging specter gave enough ground for several Arab countries to formally establish relations with israel, a far greater boon for Bibi than annexation would have been.
We see now Netanyahu, ahead of the fourth elections, change colors once again, this time hoping to make inroads with Arab voters; a bold and shameless move, given that Bibi worked to suppress the Arab vote in elections prior, as well as repeatedly inciting other israelis against them through scaremongering. Feeling crowded out of the right by the emergence of new parties, carved out of his traditional constituencies, Netanyahu has no recourse but to try filling in israel’s hollowed out political center. Benny Gantz, the man who briefly held up the banner of centrist politics, is a dead man walking, a figure that inspires pity. After presenting himself as the premier-in-waiting for three elections straight, the former head of the IDF (israeli Defense Forces) watched most of his support vanish the moment he acquiesced to becoming Bibi’s deputy in a “unity” government—the promise that they would swap roles midway through being so transparently a ruse that no one was under any illusion, except for Gantz. Perhaps Gantz is due some credit, however; none but the most magnanimous would be willing to sit with someone who hired a rabbi to collect dirt on your personal life.
The one is causing most grief at Likud HQ is Gideon Sa’ar, former star of that party who defected along with other members who claim their former political home has degenerated into a “cult of one person”. Against the backdrop of fever pitch tensions following the assassination, almost certainly by israel, of a top Iranian nuclear scientist and the one-year day of the American drone strike that killed Iranian Qassem Soleimani, israel sent for the first time a submarine to stalk the Gulf’s shallow waters. This is added to an increased American military presence, with the supercarrier USS Nimitz a hulking sign of US commitments in the region. The presence of an israeli submarine in the Gulf is noteworthy and would not have been conceivable a few months ago, before the “Abraham Accords” had Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates recognize israel.
It is worth mentioning that the circumstances around the purchase of this same israeli submarine is the subject of one of the corruption investigations haunting Netanyahu. It is not for the threat of jail alone that Bibi clings to power so stubbornly, but it is a strong incentive to stay on, no matter the costs. Fears that Netanyahu and Trump, each on their way out, are careening towards a late hour confrontation with Iran are unfounded. The coming Knesset elections on March 28 will prove the most arduous for Bibi yet, as evidenced by the fact that he has felt it necessary to appeal to Arab voters. He is touting the diplomatic deals made with various Arab countries, and between now and the election, we will probably see him in Manama and Abu Dhabi for photo opportunities; he has had to delay these before. More deals are in the offing, and Bibi would be keen to have them announced before voters head to the polls. Netanyahu doubtless has more dirty tricks up his sleeve, but whether anything can conceivably work this time is up for question. “All political lives end in failure”, is as close to an iron law as there can be in politics. The incoming Biden administration cannot be counted on to indulge Bibi in the manner Trump did by recognizing Jerusalem as israel’s “undivided” capital, moving the American embassy there, and the Golan Heights as an inviolable part of its territory. Any number of things can happen in the leadup to the end of March, and Bibi’s desperation might result in a new kind of inventiveness. As the scene is almost completely repelled against him, except for his hardcore base, Arab commentators will not resist saying "انقلب السحر على الساحر", or “the spell has turned on its caster”.