How would a Trump re-election have served better for Lebanon?

Opinion Policy Analysis by Sasha Matar, Contributor

December 11th, 2020

“America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.”

-  Henry Kissinger

(American Politician, Diplomat, Geopolitical Consultant)

A chaotic Middle Eastern-American policy is tantamount to chaotic Lebanese politics.

Well, it is true that the French Mandate ended in 1943 and Lebanon’s close to celebrate the 77th year of Independence, yet it seems like the foreign interferences throughout the years have made Lebanon an indirectly mandated country. 

To a complete stranger who has no knowledge of the situation, it is normal to wonder what an indirect mandate to Lebanon is. How is this even possible and who is behind it? Yes, the Lebanese politicians have constantly looked up to external actors by implementing regional or multinational ideologies to strengthen their positions in the domestic politics. 

Thus, making Lebanon vulnerable to regional pressure and turning the politicians’ agendas into political instruments compromising the government’s sovereignty over its territory that has become open to external interventions.

The Lebanese audience has tuned in the past week to watch the election of the year. When the final polls closed and the count began, Lebanon, along many other small countries, was wondering what the next four years would look like for him especially that Lebanon needs to implement new strategies to overcome the Great Recession and the socio-political avalanche.

Little do the Americans know that their choice of president will impact the globe when it comes to foreign policies, disregarding the fact that the currently politically-divided congress will create a stumbling block in the new president’s work vis-à-vis the internal affairs.     

“Only if we act greatly in meeting our responsibilities abroad will we remain a great nation, and only if we remain a great nation will we act greatly in meeting our challenges at home.”

-  Richard Nixon

(American Politician, 37th President of the USA)

By all means, both candidates have flaws, but why would the Trump victory have been the lesser evil to the Lebanese politics? The Biden administration has made so many promises regarding the American foreign-policies that have ‘pissed off’the “pro-thawra” community, especially after Joe Biden’s reference to use softer approaches towards Iran-Hezbollah’s sponsor, political authority and source of funding. When in 2018, Trump withdrew the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), aka the Iran Nuclear Deal, and the Iranians setting the American’s flag on fire in the Parliament, taking freedom of expression to another level. Trump showered the Islamic Republic with sanctions causing a significant drop in the Iranian currency thus creating economic recession, immobilizing the financing of its regional proxy, the Hezb.

This funding issue along with the US sanctions imposed on Hezbollah officials - as a response from the US to the people of Lebanon in their calls for reform -  meant that the Party of God is no longer benefiting from the direct transfer of the money coming from the US to Iran back when the JCPOA was still operational.

This financial support is a major key in the reinforcement of the party’s arsenal of rockets and military training, which they use against their enemy, Israel. Hezbollah is definitely reassured with a Biden presidency that is against the annexation of the West-Bank. After all, softer approach towards Iran means in the Biden agenda that the US will re-enter into the JCPOA, which means direct funding from the US to Iran and the direct transfer of these funds to Hezbollah’s pockets, as it was the case during Obama’s administration.

The Iran-backed group along with its Lebanese political allies (the Amal movement, the FPM) have influence in the decision of any new law, given the fact that they have more than 50% of the seats in the Lebanese Parliament. Any decision or law to create any reform or change is subject to their foreign political bias and the young generations are refusing any solution with the current politicians who have turned Lebanon into a chessboard.

Biden’s win will affect the Sunni-Arab Alliance vs. Iran relationship. With Iran regaining strategic control and empowering its proxies, the Sunni countries will then again be hesitant to assist Lebanon, its neighbouring country, with the reforms. Thus, the creation of the actual government under Saad El Hariri will not see the light before the final announcement of Biden as President, even though Saad El Hariri is back with no real UAE or Saudi support, but an answer to the mediations with the demonstrators.

Under a Trump administration, Lebanon could have been theoreitically heading towards a normalization deal with israel that could bring so many changes to the Lebanese society and economy, even after the strong opposition of Hezbollah. Today, A Biden presidency will take the peace deals with Israel and the Arab countries backward and not forward. It is clear thus far, that a post-Trump Middle East will not be the same without Trump’s win, that would have been a loss to the Palestinians but in some eyes a win to some Lebanese.

Besides, when Trump started the sponsorship of the normalization deals between Arab countries and Israel, it was obvious that his initiative was part of the process to reinforce his chances at being re-elected. “With Biden’s election, I don’t think Lebanon will sign a final borders deal”, said Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Studies to Al Jazeera. Especially, that the architect of these deals was Trump’s son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner.

At this point, will a Biden administration reverse certain Trump policies or consider these policies as American? The Middle East has been wondering what could change under Biden mean, and it is still unclear and not sure what the destiny of this announcement could bring to the Lebanese reforms. However, it does not have any positive or negative impact till the moment, it just means uncertainty.

Lebanon is a small country affected by greater foreign policies and it has been for long time a key battleground for the Middle Eastern policies particularly. The US should definitely remain committed to support democracy in Lebanon and the enforcement of UN security council resolutions that serve the support of democracy, and not be serving personal presidential agendas.